Posted: Tue Aug 13, 2013 10:31 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Aug 13 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Aug 13 2013
Yen short trade revival subject to Japan's sales tax chatter...
By now, the market completes a full trading day in which investors and traders had the opportunity to digest what to make out of Monday's disappointing Japan Q2 GDP data, but most importantly, what might be the implications on the widely covered topic of the sales tax hike. As reported yesterday, the big miss in the Japanese growth figures, displaying a -1% negative deviation from 3.6% expected to 2.6% preliminary data, is not helping the case to implement a planned 3% aggressive increase on the sales tax. Historically, there are well-founded reasons to fear that the economy may face some undesirable headwinds if being too aggressive on a tax hike. Japanese policy-makers are growing more vocal on softer option to take on, including either a more conservative 1% incremental approach on the sales tax, or even delaying the tax hike by one year after Japan's PM Abe Adviser, Mr. Hamada,was quoted earlier yesterday saying "there is no need to hurry with the sales tax hike after the weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP as it might harm the economy." On the flip side, BoJ Chief Kuroda said last week that it is not necessary a delay in the sales tax hike, saying that “ending deflation and raising the sales tax are achievable at the same time.”
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/13082013/
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-08-13 08:30 GMT | UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
2013-08-13 09:00 GMT | EMU ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Jul)
2013-08-13 12:30 GMT | US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
2013-08-13 14:00 GMT | US Business Inventories (Jun)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-08-13 04:54 GMT | GBP/USD working off overbought condition with current pullback
2013-08-13 04:54 GMT | EUR/GBP treading water above 0.86 ahead of UK CPI
2013-08-13 03:56 GMT | EUR/JPY pushed up to fresh new 129.60 highs
2013-08-13 03:42 GMT | EUR/USD ignited on impressive rally
----------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3313 LOW 1.32891 BID 1.33032 ASK 1.33032 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 34:53
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Price dip lower yesterday and finally stabilized. A violation of next resistance at 1.3313 (R1) might call for a run towards to next target at 1.3327 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be limited to final target at 1.3340 (R3). Downwards scenario: We placed our support level right below the session low at 1.3288 (S1). Clearance here is liable to open way towards to our interim target at 1.3275 (S2) and then might expose final aim at 1.3262 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3313, 1.3327, 1.3340
Support Levels: 1.3288, 1.3275, 1.3262
----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.54649 LOW 1.54472 BID 1.54599 ASK 1.54607 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 34:54
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Market trapped to the consolidation phase after initial uptrend development. Further buying interest might occur above the resistance at 1.5485 (R1). Our initial targets locates at 1.5512 (R2) and 1.5538 (R3) Downwards scenario: On the downside Cable is approaching our next supportive barrier at 1.5442 (S1). Break here is required to drive market price towards to next visible targets at 1.5415 (S2) and 1.5388 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 1.5485, 1.5512, 1.5538
Support Levels: 1.5442, 1.5415, 1.5388
----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 97.561 LOW 96.857 BID 97.451 ASK 97.454 CHANGE 0.57% TIME 08 : 34:55
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum on the upside recently, turning short-term bias to the positive side. Next resistive structure on the way lies at 97.65 (R1), break here would suggest next intraday targets at 97.88 (R2) and 98.11 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the key support barrier at 97.14 (S1). Only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to our targets at 96.93 (S2) and 96.70 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 97.65, 97.88, 98.11
Support Levels: 97.14, 96.93, 96.70
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:36 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Aug 14 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Aug 14 2013
Fed’s Lockhart reiterates September reduction in Federal bond buying
In news that will certainly resonate through FX Markets, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart reported that the Federal Reserve could begin reducing its bond-buying stimulus as early as its September meeting – despite inflation still being below its targeted values. One of the more pressing concerns facing investors and policymakers alike is that the U.S. economic performance is too volatile or unstable for Federal Reserve policymakers to initiate their comprehensive plan for both reducing and eventually halting their asset-purchasing program as early as next month. Ultimately though, Lockhart appeared open or receptive to at least a modest pullback in Federal monetary stimulus from its current pace of $85 billion per month. "I wouldn't rule out September," he stated. "As I see it, a decision to proceed - whether it is in September, October, or December - ought to be thought of as a cautious first step." Indeed, U.S. inflation has been running well below the Fed's 2.0% target for some time – historically very low. However Lockhart noted he did not see any signs that deflation was accelerating, reiterating that the current inflationary backdrop would still be consistent with a modest pullback in quantitative easing.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/14082013/
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-08-14 06:00 GMT | Germany. Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) (Q2)
2013-08-14 08:30 GMT | UK. Bank of England Minutes
2013-08-14 09:00 GMT | EMU. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q2)
2013-08-14 12:30 GMT | US. Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-08-14 05:01 GMT | EUR/USD grinds sideways at 1.3263 in advance of key European data
2013-08-14 04:56 GMT | EUR/GBP capped below 0.86 ahead of UK jobs data
2013-08-14 04:10 GMT | USD marginally lower on Yen strength; Hong-Kong closed
2013-08-14 03:12 GMT | Next RBA cut November, more cuts may follow - NAB
--------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3268 LOW 1.32532 BID 1.32638 ASK 1.32640 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 38:20
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Market remains relatively stable below the moving averages, though clearance of next resistance level at 1.3269 (R1) might initiates bullish pressure. Above the local high locates our intraday targets at 1.3282 (R2) and 1.3294 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to establish positive bias today would shift our focus to the next support level at 1.3246 (S1). Clearance here would open way towards to next targets at 1.3234 (S2) and 1.3221 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3269, 1.3282, 1.3294
Support Levels: 1.3246, 1.3234, 1.3221
---------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.54535 LOW 1.54362 BID 1.54425 ASK 1.54434 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 38:21
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Possibility of price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 1.5472 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest our interim target at 1.5498 (R2) and then mark at 1.5524 (R3) acts as last resistive measure today. Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 1.5425 (S1). Below here we see potential for the price acceleration towards to next targets at 1.5401 (S2) and 1.5375 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5472, 1.5498, 1.5524
Support Levels: 1.5425, 1.5401, 1.5375
----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 98.406 LOW 97.866 BID 98.386 ASK 98.388 CHANGE 0.18% TIME 08 : 38:22
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Yesterday price acceleration on the upside suggests medium-term positive bias. Possible penetration above the resistance level at 98.52 (R1) is liable to open way towards to our initial targets at 98.71 (R2) and 98.89 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, break below the support at 97.85 (S1) is required to enable possible retracement development. Our next supportive measures locates at 97.65 (S2) and 97.45 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 98.52, 98.71, 98.89
Support Levels: 97.85, 97.65, 97.45
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 9:53 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Aug 15 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Aug 15 2013
EUR/USD rips vertically on a 10-minute chart; still vulnerable macro set-up
The EUR/USD just ripped straight higher for over 400 pips on non-news related buying. Still, any upside is corrective in nature unless 1.3414 is conquered say technicians. EUR/USD will likely be trading off of US data Thursday Despite the rip higher that just occurred on the intraday chart, the macro picture appears to be setting up for much more downside once this upside correction runs its course. The European markets are closed for the most part Thursday in honor of Ascension Day.
http://www.einvestorsforum.com/#sthash.YmmEQouT.dpbs
FOREX NEWS :
2013-08-15 04:35 GMT | EUR/GBP sitting above 0.8550 ahead of UK retail sales
2013-08-15 04:22 GMT | USD/JPY hits ceiling at 97.80
2013-08-15 03:45 GMT | GBP/AUD below 1.70 testing June highs as support now
2013-08-15 03:15 GMT | AUD/JPY struggles to break 90.00 but looking bullish
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.33103 LOW 1.3253 BID 1.32896 ASK 1.32897 CHANGE 0.26% TIME 08 : 09:02
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Neutral channel formation remains in play on the hourly chart. Our next resistance level is placed above the local peak at 1.3310 (R1). Strengthening above it would point to resistive structure at 1.3341 (R2) onto 1.3367 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, price pattern suggests bearish potential if the instrument manages to overcome next support level at 1.3241 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 1.3223 (S2) and 1.3202 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.3310, 1.3341, 1.3367
Support Levels: 1.3241, 1.3223, 1.3202
---------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.55232 LOW 1.54978 BID 1.55187 ASK 1.55193 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08 : 09:03
OUTLOOK : SUMMARY
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches the 1.5538 (R1) mark. Break here would suggest next interim target at 1.5566 (R2) and If the price keeps its momentum we expect an exposure of 1.5601 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible pull back development is limited now to the key supportive barrier at 1.5496 (S1). Only loss here would be considered as a beginning of a retracement expansion. Our intraday targets locates at 1.5467 (S2) and 1.5436 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5538, 1.5566, 1.5601
Support Levels: 1.5496, 1.5467, 1.5436
--------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 98.296 LOW 97.584 BID 97.732 ASK 97.737 CHANGE -0.39% TIME 08:09:04
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Upside formation is limited now to the next resistive barrier at 98.25 (R1). Clearance here is required to provide a space for a move towards to next target at 98.56 (R2) and then final aim would be 98.77 (R3). Downwards scenario: We would shift our short-term technical outlook to the negative if the price manage to penetrate below the key support at 97.60 (S1). Loss here would suggest next initial targets at 97.30 (S2) and 97.02 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 98.25, 98.56, 98.77
Support Levels: 97.60, 97.30, 97.02
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
Obama seeks Congressional approval before launching attack against Syria
U.S. President Barack Obama has delayed a military strike against Syria by requesting authorization first from an incredulous Congress, a decision that may take no less than 10 days to be given. As Obama said, in a hastily organized appearance in the Rose Garden, "I’m prepared to give that order, but having made my decision as commander in chief based on what I am convinced is our national security interests, I’m also mindful that I’m the president of the world’s oldest constitutional democracy.” According to John Boehner, the Republican speaker of the House of Representatives, “we expect the House to consider a measure the week of September 9.″
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/02092013
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-09-02 07:53 GMT | DE Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
2013-09-02 07:58 GMT | EMU Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
2013-09-02 08:28 GMT | UK Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
2013-09-02 15:30 GMT | US 6-Month Bill Auction
FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-02 05:06 GMT | EUR/USD now trading lower and below key support at 1.3205
2013-09-02 04:50 GMT | Australian Dollar faces monumental week - UBS
2013-09-02 03:54 GMT | GBP/USD creeps north; target at 1.56
2013-09-02 03:18 GMT | EUR/GBP rapidly approaching projected downside target at 0.8472
---------------------
EURUSD
HIGH 1.32141 LOW 1.31917 BID 1.32094 ASK 1.32097 CHANGE -0.08% TIME 08 : 32:59
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Possible retracement action is limited now to the next resistive measure at 1.3226 (R1). Clearance here is required to enable our interim target at 1.3248 (R2) en route to final aim at 1.3270 (R3). Downwards scenario: The downside direction remains favored according to the technical indicators. Our next support measure lies at 1.3174 (S1). Decline below it would enable lower targets at 1.3152 (S2) and 1.3130 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3226, 1.3248, 1.3270
Support Levels: 1.3174, 1.3152, 1.3130
-------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.55658 LOW 1.55056 BID 1.55500 ASK 1.55503 CHANGE 0.36% TIME 08 : 33:00
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD clearly determined positive bias on the short-term perspective. Penetration above the resistive measure at 1.5556 (R1) might encourage protective orders execution and drive market price towards to the next resistive means at 1.5582 (R2) and 1.5598 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although market players may prefer to increase exposure on the short positions and push the price below the support level at 1.5527 (S1). Possible price devaluation would suggest initial targets at 1.5510 (S2) and then 1.5493 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5556, 1.5582, 1.5598
Support Levels: 1.5527, 1.5510, 1.5493
---------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 98.674 LOW 98.275 BID 98.598 ASK 98.603 CHANGE 0.51% TIME 08 : 33:00
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: While both moving averages are pointing up, medium-term technical outlook would be positive. Appreciation above the resistance at 98.75 (R1) would enable recovery phase towards to next targets at 98.88 (R2) and 99.01 (R3). Downwards scenario: Negative developments might be settled below the important support level at 98.47 (S1). Any price action below it would then be targeting support level at 98.34 (S2) and then final target could be exposed at 98.21 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 98.75, 98.88, 99.01
Support Levels: 98.47, 98.34, 98.21
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged at 2.5% record lows, with the Monetary Policy Statement offering some interesting clues, saying "the Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed", omitting a more aggressive narrative seen in last few months. While the door to reduce rates further is not closed, the statement sounds not as dovish as one may have expected, yet the value of the Australian Dollar and domestic indicators will continue to determine the future rate setting. For now, looks like AUD bulls will gain Sept battle.
http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-09-03 08:30 GMT | UK PMI Construction (Aug)
2013-09-03 09:00 GMT | EMU Producer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
2013-09-03 12:58 GMT | US Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
2013-09-03 14:00 GMT | US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-03 05:38 GMT | GBP/USD drifting higher for a 3rd session after rough 2 weeks; 1.5587 key hurdle
2013-09-03 05:07 GMT | AUD/USD spikes above 0.9000 after RBA
2013-09-03 04:19 GMT | EUR/USD extends choppy range; remains at 30-day lows
2013-09-03 04:03 GMT | USD/JPY continues to consolidate above 99.00
-------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31968 LOW 1.31778 BID 1.31800 ASK 1.31804 CHANGE -0.08% TIME 08 : 44:17
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Possibility of retracement formation is seen above the yesterday high -1.3227 (R1). Break here is required to clear the way towards to higher targets at 1.3248 (R2) and 1.3269 (R3). Downwards scenario: We placed our support level right below the local low at 1.3173 (S1). Clearance here is liable to open way towards to our interim target at 1.3152 (S2) and then might expose final aim at 1.3130 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3227, 1.3248, 1.3269
Support Levels: 1.3173, 1.3152, 1.3130
----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.5562 LOW 1.55379 BID 1.55491 ASK 1.55498 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 08 : 44:17
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Fresh fractal level at 1.5562 (R1) prevents further gains. Successful clearance here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5580 (R2) and 1.5597 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, next support level locates at 1.5530 (S1). Possible penetration below this mark would open way towards to next target at 1.5513 (S2) and then any further market decline would be limited to last mark at 1.5496 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5562, 1.5580, 1.5597
Support Levels: 1.5530, 1.5513, 1.5496
-----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.703 LOW 99.302 BID 99.555 ASK 99.557 CHANGE 0.24% TIME 08 : 44:18
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum on the upside recently, turning short-term bias to the positive side. Next resistive structure on the way lies at 99.71 (R1), break here would suggest next intraday targets at 99.93 (R2) and 100.15 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to establish positive bias today would shift our focus to the next support level at 99.29 (S1). Clearance here would open way towards to next targets at 99.06 (S2) and 98.82 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 99.71, 99.93, 100.15
Support Levels: 99.29, 99.06, 98.82
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
New Syria resolution in Senate sets 90-day deadline for U.S. military action
A new use-of-force resolution for Syria sets a 60-day deadline, with one 30-day extension possible, for U.S. President Barack Obama to launch military strikes against Syria, reports Politico from a revised draft authorization, also adding it will also bar the involvement of U.S. ground forces in Syria. As Politico adds: "The revised resolution was crafted by Sens. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) and Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), the chairman and ranking member of the Foreign Relations Committee, following several days of negotiations." The proposal could go for voting by Wednesday.
http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-09-04 09:00 GMT | EMU Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q2)
2013-09-04 12:30 GMT | US Trade Balance (Jul)
2013-09-04 14:00 GMT | CA BoC Interest Rate Decision
2013-09-04 18:00 GMT | US Fed's Beige Book
FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-04 05:20 GMT | Deeply oversold EUR/GBP breaking all support and projections on downside
2013-09-04 05:14 GMT | USD/CHF is trading nearly its daily highs
2013-09-04 04:17 GMT | GBP/USD stuck below 1.5587 key hurdle ahead of Wednesday’s data
2013-09-04 04:00 GMT | EUR/USD, potential of a sharp test of 1.3050 - ANZ
-------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31761 LOW 1.31619 BID 1.31678 ASK 1.31682 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 51:30
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Price dip lower yesterday and finally stabilized near its local low. A violation of next resistance at 1.3194 (R1) might call for a run towards to next target at 1.3215 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be limited to final target at 1.3235 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important resistive measure at 1.3138 (S1). Break here is required to drive market price towards to next visible targets at 1.3117 (S2) and 1.3097 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 1.3194, 1.3215, 1.3235
Support Levels: 1.3138, 1.3117, 1.3097
-----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.55677 LOW 1.5555 BID 1.55616 ASK 1.55621 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 51:30
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Neutral tone remains favored on the hourly chart frame, however possible extension above the resistive measure at 1.5582 (R1) would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5597 (R2) and 1.5611 (R3). Downwards scenario: An evidence of possible descending structure could be provided if the pair manages to surpass key support level at 1.5543 (S1). In such case we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5529 (S2) and 1.5514 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5582, 1.5597, 1.5611
Support Levels: 1.5543, 1.5529, 1.5514
----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.769 LOW 99.418 BID 99.723 ASK 99.725 CHANGE 0.15% TIME 08 : 51:31
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Market remains relatively stable above the moving averages. Clearance of next resistance level at 99.88 (R1) might initiates bullish pressure and expose our intraday targets at 100.15 (R2) and 100.41 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 99.40 (S1). Below here we see potential for the price acceleration towards to next targets at 99.14 (S2) and 98.89 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 99.88, 100.15, 100.41
Support Levels: 99.40, 99.14, 98.89
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
Today's main event is the ECB meeting this afternoon
oday’s main event is the ECB meeting this afternoon. In our view, there are fewer arguments for a rate cut today than a month ago, given recent upside surprises in economic indicators and a slower pace of decline in excess liquidity (see ECB Preview: Keep the powder dry). Hence, we expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged and Draghi to refrain from explaining further the forward guidance.
The EUR/USD is trading downwards ahead of ECB and G20 meeting, but still remains above its 200-day moving average. Will the EUR/USD finally manage to break its 200-day MA at 1.3144? The pair is under pressure again, after a short relief in Wednesday’s trading session. The global equities rally rounded out by the biggest advance for the US Indexes in two weeks, pushed downwards the American dollar on Wednesday, i.e. the single currency got a small relief yesterday. Still, risk over the next 48 hours is of great significance and should be considered more trend defining. The G20 meeting doesn’t have a definitely positive or negative outcome, but Friday’s NFPs do. For today’s ECB meeting, there are obviously many members of the Governing Council who want to convince the market that rate hikes are still an “illusion”. -FXstreet.com
http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis
FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-05 05:36 GMT EUR/USD still under pressure ahead of ECB meeting
2013-09-05 05:34 GMT USD/JPY now at key resistance at 99.94 after rally of the last hour
2013-09-05 04:42 GMT EUR/GBP glued to 0.8450 ahead of BoE & ECB
2013-09-05 04:24 GMT GBP/JPY confined in a tight range
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.32076 LOW 1.31644 BID 1.31689 ASK 1.31694 CHANGE -0.29% TIME 08 : 44:52
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD gained momentum on the downside recently and likely will close on the negative territory today. However, clearance of our next resistive structure at 1.3200 (R1) would open way towards to our initial target at 1.3218 (R2) and any further market rise would then be targeting 1.3235 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible market weakening is protected by important technical level at 1.3157 (S1). Break here is required to open road towards to interim target at 1.3138 (S2) en route to final aim at 1.3119 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3200, 1.3218, 1.3235
Support Levels: 1.3157, 1.3138, 1.3119
------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.56275 LOW 1.55956 BID 1.56032 ASK 1.56038 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08 : 44:53
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating if the pair approaches 1.5636 (R1) price level. Break here would suggest next interim target at 1.5652 (R2) and If the price keeps its momentum we expect an exposure of 1.5670 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next support level locates at 1.5593 (S1) mark. Possible penetration below this level would open way towards to next target at 1.5575 (S2) and then final aim lie at 1.5557 (S3) price level.
Resistance Levels: 1.5636, 1.5652, 1.5670
Support Levels: 1.5593, 1.5575, 1.5557
----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.982 LOW 99.644 BID 99.852 ASK 99.857 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 44:54
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Market trapped to the consolidation phase after initial uptrend development. Further buying interest might occur above the resistance at 100.15 (R1). Our initial targets locates at 100.41 (R2) and 100.66 (R3) Downwards scenario: On the other side, depreciation below the supportive measure at 99.53 (S1) would confirm bearish medium-term tendency and validate our next intraday targets at 99.27 (S2) and 98.99 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 100.15, 100.41, 100.66
Support Levels: 99.53, 99.27, 98.99
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
At the press conference following the ECB Governing Council's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5% in September, president Mario Draghi reiterated that key interest rates would remain at the current or lower levels for an extended period of time.He stressed that economic activity in the Eurozone is improving, as confidence indicators show, and that the ECB is ready to support the recovery with its accommodative monetary policy. Current geopolitical tensions are one of the main threats to the recovery, he said. Inflation in the Eurozone is low and should remain at this level in the coming months. Upside risks on inflation are connected with higher indirect taxes and commodity prices, while downside risks stem from weaker growth. The ECB has risen its Eurozone 2013 growth forecast to -0.4% from -0.6% and lowered the projection for 2014 to 1% from 1.1%. As far as inflation is concerned, the forecast for 2013 was hiked to 1.5% from 1.4% this year and left unchanged at 1.3% for 2014. Mario Draghi also stressed the importance of setting up the banking union quickly, as "weak loan dynamics continue to reflect the current state of the business cycle."
http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis
FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-06 05:29 GMT | USD/JPY close to 100.00 area ahead of NFP
2013-09-06 04:17 GMT | USD eases in Asia ahead of NFP; Yen strengthens
2013-09-06 03:57 GMT | Technicians need gold to break 1,351.60 to validate bearish call
2013-09-06 02:51 GMT | Sell EUR/USD into 1.3150, TP 1.3090 ahead of NFP - JPMorgan
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31384 LOW 1.31161 BID 1.31310 ASK 1.31315 CHANGE 0.09% TIME 08 : 50:06
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: On the upside, fractals level at 1.3156 (R1) offers an important resistive structure. Any penetration above that level would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3179 (R2) and 1.3202 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the 20 SMA our technical outlook would be negative. Extension lower the key support level at 1.3110 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to our next targets at 1.3087 (S2) and 1.3065 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3156, 1.3179, 1.3202
Support Levels: 1.3110, 1.3087, 1.3065
------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.56133 LOW 1.55862 BID 1.56054 ASK 1.56059 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 50:07
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD stabilized on the hourly chart however appreciation above the next resistance at 1.5627 (R1) might be a good catalyst for an upwards formation towards to next targets at 1.5647 (R2) and 1.5666 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, new phase of retracement formation might commence below the important support level at 1.5572 (S1). Break here is required to validate our targets at 1.5552 (S2) and 1.5531 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 1.5327, 1.5647, 1.5666
Support Levels: 1.5572, 1.5552, 1.5531
-----------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 100.225 LOW 99.695 BID 99.735 ASK 99.739 CHANGE -0.37% TIME 08 : 50:07
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 100.15 (R1). Appreciation above it might lead to the positive intraday bias formation towards to our next targets at 100.44 (R2) and 100.73 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 99.56 (S1). Below here we see potential for the price regress towards to next targets at 99.29 (S2) and 99.00 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 100.15, 100.44, 100.73
Support Levels: 99.56, 99.29, 99.00
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
EUR/USD higher in early Europe after rising on Friday but still gets no love from ECB
The EUR/USD opened higher the week after having dropped for a second week in a row. Elaborating on, the single currency managed to have a “green” day on Friday due to dismal NFP data, but still closed the week lower against the greenback for a second consecutive week, partly on Draghi’s more than expected dovish stance. ECB Draghi seems to remain very cautious about the Euro zone return to growth and not much enthusiastic about recovery in the Euro land. On the opposite side, despite the dismal NFP, the consensus in the market is for the Fed to announce the commencement of gradual tapering in the meeting of 17th and 18th of September. Traders should bear into consideration the Sentix Investor Confidence which will be released at 8.30 GMT hours and a further improvement in sentiment is anticipated.
As long as the view for tapering remains “on”, any potential EUR/USD rallies will be well capped. Despite the great disappointment on Friday’s NFP release, hints from the Fed points to tapering, even in a small gradual scale such as of $15bililion/$20 billion per month. What’s more, the power-horse of Europe as well depicted in the industrial figures released last week, isn’t strong enough. There are political problems in coalition forces in Italy, a third bailout package in Greece seems inevitable and there is also political uncertainty in Cyprus.
http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-09-09 08:30 GMT | EMU Sentix Investor Confidence (Aug)
2013-09-09 12:30 GMT | CA Building Permits (MoM) (Jul)
2013-09-09 19:00 GMT | US Consumer Credit Change (Jul)
2013-09-09 23:50 GMT | BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-09 05:44 GMT | USD/CHF bouncing modestly ahead of data following bearish reversal Friday
2013-09-09 04:16 GMT | EUR/GBP limited below 0.8430 on Euro weakness
2013-09-09 04:05 GMT | AUD/USD is heading upwards on China data and after weekend elections
2013-09-09 03:38 GMT | Playing USD/JPY from the long side - JPMorgan
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31812 LOW 1.31642 BID 1.31718 ASK 1.31723 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08 : 36:45
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Further positive bias development would face next resistive measure at 1.3190 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3212 (R2) and 1.3234 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, our bearish expectations remain intact below the key support level at 1.3155 (S1). Price penetration below it would allow further declines towards to lower targets at 1.3134 (S2) and 1.3112 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3190, 1.3212, 1.3234
Support Levels: 1.3155, 1.3134, 1.3112
---------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.56455 LOW 1.56158 BID 1.56441 ASK 1.56443 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08 : 36:46
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our key resistive measure at 1.5651 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5668 (R2) and 1.5685 (R3). Downwards scenario: Medium-term bias remains sideways orientated. A dip lower the key support measure at 1.5613 (S1) would open a route towards to lower targets at 1.5596 (S2) and 1.5579 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5651, 1.5668, 1.5685
Support Levels: 1.5613, 1.5596, 1.5579
------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 100.105 LOW 99.49 BID 99.645 ASK 99.649 CHANGE 0.56% TIME 08 : 36:47
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches 100.11 (R1) price level. Break here would suggest next interim target at 100.44 (R2) and If the pair keeps its momentum we would expect an exposure of 100.75 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside bearish pressure might push the price below the support at 99.29 (S1). Further downside extension would open road towards to next target at 98.97 (S2) and any further losses would then be limited to 98.64 (S3) mark.
Resistance Levels: 100.11, 100.44, 100.75
Support Levels: 99.29, 98.97, 98.64
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
The shared currency is extending its ascent on Tuesday, lifting the EUR/USD to the area of 1.3270 on upbeat tone from the Chinese economy.China continues to be the main driver for the risk appetite trends in the first half of the week, after Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Urban Investment figures all surpassed expectations during August, giving extra oxygen to the risk-associated assets in general. In the opinion of Westpac Global Strategy Group, “The 55, 100 and 200 day moving averages have converged in the 1.3140-90 range, with the runup to 1.34 an increasingly distant memory. ECB president Draghi’s mood last week was gloomier than expected, adding to our bias to sell into the 1.32-1.33 region. However, US data has been too soft to inspire much fresh USD buying, leaving 1.3100 intact for now”.
At the moment the pair is gaining 0.09% at 1.3268 with the next resistance at 1.3279 (Kijun Line) ahead of 1.3298 (low Aug.22) and then 1.3322 (low Aug.27). On the downside, a break below 1.3157 (low Sep.9) would target 1.3104 (50% of 1.2755-1.3453) en route to 1.3089 (low Jul.19).
http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
N/A UK 30-y Bond Auction
2013-09-10 08:00 GMT | IT Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q2)
2013-09-10 12:15 GMT | CA Housing Starts s.a (YoY) (Aug)
2013-09-10 17:00 GMT | US 3-Year Note Auction
FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-10 05:40 GMT | Time for another leg up in USD/JPY - RBS
2013-09-10 05:21 GMT | EUR likely to be supported on dips - JPMorgan
2013-09-10 05:02 GMT | AUD/USD, risk is high of a further squeeze up towards 0.9500 - RBS
2013-09-10 04:25 GMT | USD/CHF holding ground above 0.9307 support despite Friday’s bearish candle
---------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.32725 LOW 1.32502 BID 1.32676 ASK 1.32681 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 54:03
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Current price setup might suggest retracement formation in near term perspective, however, if the price get acceleration on the upside and manages to surpass our resistive measure at 1.3281 (R1), we would suggest next targets at 1.3297 (R2) and 1.3313 (R3). Downwards scenario: Clearance of our support at 1.3248 (S1) is required to determine negative intraday bias and enable lower target at 1.3230 (S2) and then any further market depreciation would suggest final target at 1.3213 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3281, 1.3297, 1.3313
Support Levels: 1.3248, 1.3230, 1.3213
------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.57086 LOW 1.56856 BID 1.57056 ASK 1.57059 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 54:04
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: Further positive bias development would face next resistive measure at 1.5731 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5751 (R2) and 1.5772 (R3). Downwards scenario: Successful retest of our next support level at 1.5680 (S1) might provide sufficient momentum for the price acceleration towards to interim target at 1.5658 (S2) and then final aim for today could be exposed at 1.5637 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5731, 1.5751, 1.5772
Support Levels: 1.5680, 1.5658, 1.5637
----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.757 LOW 99.477 BID 99.628 ASK 99.630 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08 : 54:05
Upwards scenario: Current price setup might suggest range mode development in near term perspective. Though If the price manages to surpass our resistive measure at 99.88 (R1), we would suggest next targets at 100.18 (R2) and 100.47 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside expansion is protected by support level at 99.33 (S1), break here would put bullish oriented traders on hold. Marks at 99.04 (S2) and 98.75 (S3) acts as our initial targets today.
Resistance Levels: 99.88, 100.18, 100.47
Support Levels: 99.33, 99.04, 98.75
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
Obama puts Syrian action on hold while diplomacy pursued
President Obama addressed the American people on the Syrian conflict, and where the U.S. goes from here, after headlines for a diplomatic resolution inundated media outlets on Tuesday. Barack Obama started the speech with a strong case for a ‘yes’ vote in Congress, saying "We know Asssad's government was responsible" Iran would be emboldened.... "This is not a world we should accept'' , although making clear that the U.S. "will not put American boots on the ground in Syria."
As the speech progressed, a more conciliatory Obama emerged, saying that after the Russian proposal to place under international control Syria's alleged chemical weapons - which Assad's government agreed to -, he asked Congress to postpone a vote on Syria action while diplomacy is pursued, adding that Assa's initiative has the potential to remove weapons without use of force. Obama also said: "Over the last few days we’ve seen some encouraging signs, in part because of the threat of military action." Since Obama was specific about the slim chances of an immediate attack, the speech supports the recent bid on risk assets.
http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
N/A | The US Congress votes on military action against Syria
2013-09-11 08:30 GMT | UK Claimant Count Change (Aug)
2013-09-11 15:30 GMT | UK MPC Member Miles Speech
2013-09-11 21:00 GMT | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-11 05:41 GMT | GBP/JPY still up near the highs and eyeing 158.46 after convincing breakout
2013-09-11 05:25 GMT | USD/CHF on higher levels as geo-political tensions are fading away
2013-09-11 05:05 GMT | EUR/USD tumbling after Obama’s address; 1.3278 resistance looms large
2013-09-11 04:29 GMT | GBP/USD heads into employment report easing away from 1.5737 resistance
-----------------
EURUSD
HIGH 1.32819 LOW 1.32437 BID 1.32491 ASK 1.32493 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 09 : 05:26
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Possible upwards extension above the resistance level at 1.3266 (R1) is liable to commence medium-term bullish structure. Important fractal levels offers next targets at 1.3282 (R2) and 1.3298 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the moving averages our short-term outlook would be negative. Possible extension lower the 1.3240 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to initial supports at 1.3226 (S2) and 1.3211 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3266, 1.3282, 1.3298
Support Levels: 1.3240, 1.3226, 1.3211
-------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.57417 LOW 1.57186 BID 1.57190 ASK 1.57197 CHANGE -0.08% TIME 09 : 05:34
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our key resistive measure at 1.5744 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5767 (R2) and 1.5789 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, currency pair might encounter supportive measures at 1.5711 (S1). Break here would open the way for a test of our next targets at 1.5689 (S2) and 1.5666 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 1.5744, 1.5767, 1.5789
Support Levels: 1.5711, 1.5689, 1.5666
---------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 100.609 LOW 100.139 BID 100.430 ASK 100.433 CHANGE 0.04% TIME 09 : 05:35
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Mark at 100.65 (R1) acts as next resistive barrier on the way if the instrument keeps it upside potential. Break here is required to achieve higher targets at 100.93 (R2) and 101.19 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the support level at 100.12 (S1). Loss here is required to enable our supportive barrier at 99.85 (S2) en route towards to final target for today at 99.59 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 100.65, 100.93, 101.19
Support Levels: 100.12, 99.85, 99.59
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
Barroso calls for quick implementation of Eurozone banking union
Europe is on a road to recovery, but efforts must still be made to prop it up, president of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso said on Wednesday, delivering the annual State of the Union speech. He listed unemployment as the the most burning issue to solve, as its current level is “economically unsustainable, politically untenable and socially unacceptable.” Speaking at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, Barroso pointed to the recent improvements in the European financial markets as well as the better situation in Greece. “For Europe, recovery is within sight. Let's not overestimate the progress, but neither should we underestimate what has been done,” he said.
He called for a quicker implementation of the Eurozone banking union, which would help boost growth and employment. Finalizing discussions on the next EU budget was also listed as a top priority. Furthermore, Barroso stressed the need for a tighter political union, suggesting that “Europe must focus on where it can add most value. It needs to be big on big things and smaller on smaller things.” The European Commission president also referred to the chemical attack in Syria, which the EU condemns but still hopes to see the a conflict resolved through a negotiated settlement.
http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis
FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-12 05:33 GMT | AUD/USD falls apart on softest Australian jobs data
2013-09-12 05:26 GMT | Gold teetering on the brink above 1,351.60 key support
2013-09-12 05:07 GMT | Overbought GBP/USD buoyant at 1.5835 ahead of data / events
2013-09-12 04:50 GMT | EUR/GBP threatening the 0.84 big support
---------------------
EURUSD
HIGH 1.33241 LOW 1.33041 BID 1.33043 ASK 1.33047 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08 : 53:11
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 1.3325 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 1.3339 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.3354 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument looks overbought and we expect to see some consolidation pattern ahead. Risk of possible price regress is seen below the support level at 1.3299 (S1). Break here would suggest lower targets at 1.3283 (S2) and 1.3268 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.3325, 1.3339, 1.3354
Support Levels: 1.3299, 1.3283, 1.3268
-------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.58316 LOW 1.58131 BID 1.58144 ASK 1.58146 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 53:12
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Mark at 1.5837 (R1) acts as next resistive barrier on the way if the pair keeps it upside potential. Break here is required to achieve higher targets at 1.5861 (R2) and 1.5886 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: Medium term bias is clearly positive however we expect recovery action if the price manages to overcome key supportive bastion at 1.5800 (S1). In such case we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5775 (S2) and 1.5748 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5837, 1.5861, 1.5886
Support Levels: 1.5800, 1.5775, 1.5748
------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.99 LOW 99.394 BID 99.493 ASK 99.495 CHANGE -0.39% TIME 08 : 53:13
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: USDJPY tested negative territory today though appreciation above the resistive structure at 99.69 (R1) might shift short-term tendency to the bullish side and validate our intraday targets at 99.88 (R2) and 100.08 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to establish corrective structure might lead to further downtrend evolvement later on today. Penetration below the support at 99.33 (S1) would suggest next intraday targets at 99.14 (S2) and 98.96 (S3) in perspective.
Resistance Levels: 99.69, 99.88, 100.08
Support Levels: 99.33, 99.14, 98.96
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
The judgment day for the Fed, Sept 17, is nearing, and the market is preparing accordingly for what may represent the most important monetary policy decision taken in years, as the start of QE taper gets kick-started. Even if the next FOMC meeting comes on the back of a rather disappointing NFP past Friday, the communication strategy carried out by Chairman Ben Bernanke & Co. so far suggest that some sort of light taper should be expected, or else the sell-off in the USD might be one that make headlines all over the world. According to Adam Button, Editor at Forexlive, "The market has settled on $10 billion as the most-likely size for the Fed’s taper next week", anticipating that "larger and the dollar will rally hard, smaller and it will fall."
Meanwhile, Treasury traders seem to be perceive the taper being priced in less than 10bln, which makes a bullish case for a stronger USD for those supporting odds for a more aggressive taper. If this scenario happens to be true, some long USD plays vs other G10 currencies such as the NZD, EUR or even the CAD, might be a great play based on this assumption. As Button notes: "I think it’s clear that a taper is coming but the Fed could still change its mind on the size and the messages that accompany it. Two reports in the days ahead could change their thinking: retail sales on Friday and the CPI on Monday."
http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
24h | EMU EcoFin Meeting
2013-09-13 12:30 GMT | US Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
2013-09-13 13:55 GMT | US Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Sep)
2013-09-13 14:00 GMT | US Business Inventories (Aug)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-13 05:17 GMT | GBP/USD little moved after Carney, US job data
2013-09-13 04:52 GMT | NZD/USD faces formidable 0.8150/70 tech resistance
2013-09-13 04:39 GMT | USD stronger ahead of US retail sales; Gold stalls
2013-09-13 04:38 GMT | EUR/USD capped by 1.3300
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.33022 LOW 1.32644 BID 1.32677 ASK 1.32680 CHANGE -0.23% TIME 08 : 40:28
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.3286 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.3302 (R2) and then final aim locates at 1.3317 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further downside extension might face next supportive barrier at 1.3256 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to interim target at 1.3240 (S2) and any further price regress would then be targeting 1.3225 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3286, 1.3302, 1.3317
Support Levels: 1.3256, 1.3240, 1.3225
--------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.58117 LOW 1.57766 BID 1.57812 ASK 1.57816 CHANGE -0.14% TIME 08 : 40:29
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD tested negative side recently, however we see potential to test resistive barrier at 1.5812 (R1) later on today. Successful penetration above that level would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5838 (R2) and 1.5864 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: In terms of technical levels, risk of price depreciation is seen below the support level at 1.5775 (S1). Loss here would suggest to monitor marks at 1.5750 (S2) and 1.5725 (S3) as possible intraday targets.
Resistance Levels: 1.5812, 1.5838, 1.5864
Support Levels: 1.5775, 1.5750, 1.5725
--------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.976 LOW 99.418 BID 99.861 ASK 99.866 CHANGE 0.33% TIME 08 : 40:29
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Further price appreciation is a likely scenario for today according to the technical readings. If the pair manages to clear the barrier at 100.08 (R1), we would suggest next targets at 100.24 (R2) and 100.40 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next supportive barrier lies at 99.72 (S1). Break here is required to enable downside expansion towards to our intraday targets at 99.54 (S2) and 99.36 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 100.08, 100.24, 100.40
Support Levels: 99.72, 99.54, 99.36
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
US and Russia outline diplomatic framework on Syria
Asian markets reacted positively at the open, cheering up what is perceived as a headline likely to fuel risk-on appetite, as news hit the wires on a political U.S. / Russia deal for the Syrian crisis over the weekend. Despite the easing in geopolitical tensions, there are still claims from both sides of the political spectrum in the U.S. implying the deal with Russia is a defeat by the US administration. In an interview with ABC over the weekend, Obama said limited military action should not be rule out just yet, should the Assad regime not comply to disarm its chemical arsenal. In a joint news conference between US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, a framework document for Syria to surrender its chemical stockpiles was outlined, with Kerry calling Assad to live up to its commitments.
http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-09-16 08:00 GMT | EMU ECB President Draghi's Speech
2013-09-16 09:00 GMT | EMU Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (Aug)
2013-09-16 09:00 GMT | EMU Labour cost (Q2)
2013-09-16 13:15 GMT | US Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-16 05:07 GMT | GBP/USD flirting with 1.6000 on risk-on sentiment
2013-09-16 04:40 GMT | Expecting a $20bn Fed taper - RBS
2013-09-16 04:11 GMT | USD/CHF trading just above 0.9230 support after Fed / Summers news
2013-09-16 03:51 GMT | EUR/USD spikes on much more dovish Yellen
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.33822 LOW 1.33551 BID 1.33622 ASK 1.33627 CHANGE 0.49% TIME 08 : 34:20
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Our next resistance level is placed at 1.3384 (R1). Break here would open route towards to higher target at 1.3405 (R2) and any further price advance would then be limited to 1.3426 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, prolonged movement below the supportive measure at 1.3339 (S1) is required to activate new phase of downtrend expansion. We would suggest next aim at 1.3318 (S2) and then final target could be met at 1.3295 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3384, 1.3405, 1.3426
Support Levels: 1.3339, 1.3318, 1.3295
------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.59576 LOW 1.59302 BID 1.59529 ASK 1.59535 CHANGE 0.5% TIME 08 : 34:20
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistive measure at 0.5971 (R1) on the upside. Break here is required to enable bullish potential and expose our interim target at 1.6000 (R2). Further price appreciation would then be limited to last resistance at 1.6030 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, price devaluation below the support at 1.5919 (S1) would initiate bearish pressure. On the way our next interim support at 1.5889 (S2) en route to final aim for today at 1.5858 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5971, 1.6000, 1.6030
Support Levels: 1.5919, 1.5889, 1.5858
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USDJPY :
HIGH 99.104 LOW 98.456 BID 98.925 ASK 98.928 CHANGE -0.44% TIME 08 : 34:24
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: Discounted value of USDJPY determined negative bias on the medium-term perspective. From the technical side, next resistance is seen at 99.11 (R1). Only clearance here would allow possible gains, targeting 99.33 (R2) and 99.54 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of the market decline is seen below the support level at 98.44 (S1). Break here is required to open the way towards to immediate supports at 98.25 (S2) and 98.04 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 99.11, 99.33, 99.54
Support Levels: 98.44, 98.25, 98.04
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
The Fed to maintain forward guidance with firm tone, says Hilsenrath
The Federal Reserve is struggling to justify extending forward guidance as part of its strategy to maintain the recovery path according to Fedwatcher Jon Hilsenrath in his latest article on the FOMC policy meeting. The FOMC is expected to publish its interest rate and monetary policy decision on Wednesday September 18 and market is widely expecting the Fed to start its cut in the bond buying program. The Fedwatcher affirmed in his piece that "Federal Reserve officials face a communication challenge explaining their interest-rate plans when they gather for a policy meeting this week."
Their challenge is "how to justify the low interest-rate plan when their own estimates suggest an economy regaining its health." According to Hilsenrath, Fed forecasts could show "rates rising but still low" by 2016. The Fed also expects economy at "full employment" by the same year. The decision on QE tapering the $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program is now a close call "on whether to start pulling back on the QE." The Fed is now changing its emphasis from bond buying to the "low-rate pledge."
http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-09-17 08:30 GMT : UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
2013-09-17 09:00 GMT : EMU ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Aug)
2013-09-17 12:30 GMT : US Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
2013-09-17 13:00 GMT : US Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Jul)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-17 05:29 GMT : NZD/USD downwards in tandem with “Aussie”
2013-09-17 04:43 GMT : EUR/USD sails below EMA20 - extending trading range
2013-09-17 04:43 GMT : EUR/GBP still under the 0.84 handle ahead of German ZEW & UK CPI
2013-09-17 04:16 GMT : AUD/JPY pops up after RBA minutes
-----------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.33422 LOW 1.33252 BID 1.33396 ASK 1.33398 CHANGE 0.04% TIME 08 : 56:12
OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up
TREND CONDITION Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Current price setup is looking for upwards extension possibility. Risk of the price acceleration is seen above the key resistance level at 1.3361 (R1). Clearance here would put immediate focus on the next targets at 1.3384 (R2) and then 1.3405 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next support level is placed at 1.3321 (S1). Possible penetration below it might initiate bearish pressure and gradually push the price towards to our intraday targets at 1.3298 (S2) and 1.3275 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3361, 1.3384, 1.3405
Support Levels: 1.3321, 1.3298, 1.3275
--------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.59151 LOW 1.58884 BID 1.59091 ASK 1.59098 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 56:13
OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up
TREND CONDITION Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY High
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD resumed upwards penetration today and we see potential to expose our intraday targets at 1.5996 (R2) and 1.6030 (R3) if the price manages to overcome key resistance measure at 1.5964 (R1). Downwards scenario: Though, we still keep the bearish scenario in focus. Risk of market decline is seen below the key support level at 1.5888 (S1). Loss here would enable initial targets at 1.5853 (S2) and 1.5818 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5964, 1.5996, 1.6030
Support Levels: 1.5888, 1.5853, 1.5818
-------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.358 LOW 99.009 BID 99.145 ASK 99.147 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 56:14
OUTLOOK SUMMARY Down
TREND CONDITION Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium
Upwards scenario: Price strengthening is possible above the next resistance level at 99.36 (R1). Our interim target holds at 99.56 (R2) en route to our final aim for today at 99.77 (R3). Downwards scenario: However if the price manages to break our key support level at 99.00 (S1) bearish market participants might take the initiative. Our intraday support level locates at 98.79 (S2) and 98.58 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 99.36, 99.56, 99.77
Support Levels: 99.00, 98.79, 98.58
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
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