IMF cuts global growth for fourth consecutive time, European recession likelihood 50%
International Monetary Fund (IMF) trimmed its global growth forecast and urged European policy makers to use “aggressive” monetary policy as a second year of contraction leaves the euro area’s recovery lagging behind the rest of the world. The global economy will continue to grow a further 3.3% this year, less than the 3.5% forecast in January, after 3.2% growth in 2012, the fund noted today, cutting its prediction for this year a fourth consecutive time. Moreover, the Washington-based IMF sees the 17-country euro area shrinking 0.3% , compared with a 0.2% retreat in January, with France joining Spain and Italy in the contraction. “The main challenge is still very much in Europe,” IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard said. “Europe should do everything it can to strengthen private demand. What this means is aggressive monetary policy and what this means is getting the financial system to be stronger -- it’s still not in great shape.” As central banks in U.S. and Japan enact unorthodox policies such as asset purchases to rekindle and reinvigorate demand, pressure is mounting on the European Central Bank to do more. The IMF report describes a “three-speed” recovery led by emerging markets including China, with the U.S. forging ahead and Europe trailing after fighting a debt crisis that has forced bailouts of five countries in the region.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/17042013/
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
N/A | Germany. 10-y Bond Auctionctus
2013-04-17 08:30 GMT | UK. Bank of England Minutes
2013-04-17 14:00 GMT | Canada. BoC Interest Rate Decision
2013-04-17 18:00 GMT | USA. Fed's Beige Book
FOREX NEWS :
2013-04-17 04:36 GMT | EUR/USD edges lower after impressive close above 1.3155 pivot
2013-04-17 04:09 GMT | Medium-term bearish view on the Indian Rupee - Nomura
2013-04-17 03:34 GMT | AUD/USD rejected from 1.04 resistance
2013-04-17 03:32 GMT | EUR/AUD winning streak continues, more gains to follow?
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31879 LOW 1.31699 BID 1.31740 ASK 1.31745 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 58:06
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: On the upside resistive structure at 1.3199 (R1) prevents further gains. Clearance here is required to open route towards to next target at 1.3225 (R2) and then final target could be triggered at 1.3251 (R3). Downwards scenario: Pair looks likely to test our supportive means today. Devaluation below the support at 1.3150 (S1) would initiate bearish pressure. On the way our next interim support at 1.3124 (S2) en route to final target at 1.3098 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3199, 1.3225, 1.3251
Support Levels: 1.3150, 1.3124, 1.3098
-----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.53722 LOW 1.53479 BID 1.53479 ASK 1.53488 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 58:07
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Technically medium-term bias remains positive. Next resistive structure holds above the yesterday high at 1.5379 (R1). Break here would suggest marks at 1.5396 (R2) and 1.5411 (R3) as next visible targets. Downwards scenario: Downside expansion might face next hurdle at 1.5347 (S1). Break here is required to initiate stronger bearish pressure and validate our immediate targets at 1.5327 (S2) and 1.5307 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.5379, 1.5396, 1.5411
Support Levels: 1.5347, 1.5327, 1.5307
-------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 98.432 LOW 97.514 BID 98.323 ASK 98.328 CHANGE 0.8% TIME 08 : 58:08
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Any upside actions looks limited to resistance level at 98.58 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable next target at 98.87 (R2) and any further gains would then be targeting final mark at 99.13 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, prolonged movement below the supportive measure at 98.08 (S1) might activate bearish pressure. Next aim for the downtrend expansion locates at 97.81 (S2) and then final target for today could be met at 97.52 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 98.58, 98.87, 99.13
Support Levels: 98.08, 97.81, 97.52
Weidmann opens the door to an ECB rate cut and foresees a lost decade in Europe
Jens Weidmann, the Bundesbank’s president, has affirmed that the European Central Bank could cut its interest rates if economic data continues worsening, according to an interview published by WSJ. Market has been speculating about the possibilities of the ECB cutting rates and now with inflation below the 2.0% it seems more than likely in May or June. However, Weidmann said the ECB “might adjust in response to new information," but he doesn’t “think that the monetary policy stance is the key issue."
"A point that I think is important to make, perhaps less for my central bank colleagues than for finance ministers,” Weidmann pointed, “is that the medication monetary policy makers administer only cures the symptoms and that it comes with side-effects and risks." In Weidmann's words, the important thing is the development of the reforms at the national and European level. The Bundesbank president also stated that the European recovery will take as much as a decade. The opinion is contrary to other European leaders who said that the worst of the crisis is over. "Overcoming the crisis and the crisis effects will remain a challenge over the next decade,” Weidmann affirmed.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/18042013/
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
24h | G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting
2013-04-18 08:30 GMT | UK. Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
2013-04-18 12:30 GMT | USA. Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 13)
2013-04-18 14:00 GMT | USA. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Apr)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-04-18 05:58 GMT | EUR/USD flat-lining around 1.3040/45
2013-04-18 03:58 GMT | BoC unlikely to hike rates until H2 2014 - Nomura
2013-04-18 03:17 GMT | Australia activity will soften into the June quarter – NAB
2013-04-18 01:59 GMT | China house prices continue to rise
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3061 LOW 1.30207 BID 1.30491 ASK 1.30496 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 09 : 05:28
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Price consolidates after the initial downtrend development yesterday. Price appreciation is possible above the next resistance level at 1.3061 (R1). Break here is required to enable intraday targets at 1.3081 (R2) and 1.3102 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, technically important supportive structure lies at 1.3001 (S1). If the price manages to overcome it, we would suggest next initial targets at 1.2979 (S2) and 1.2957 (S3) in perspective.
Resistance Levels: 1.3061, 1.3081, 1.3102
Support Levels: 1.3001, 1.2979, 1.2957
-------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52557 LOW 1.52328 BID 1.52532 ASK 1.52538 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 09 : 05:29
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD maintained a negative near-term tone though recovery action is possible above the next visible resistance at 1.5270 (R1). Clearance here might initiate bullish pressure and validate our next targets at 1.5287 (R2) and 1.5304 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our focus is shifted to the next support level at 1.5216 (S1). Loss here is required to push the price towards to our next interim targets at 1.5199 (S2) en route towards to final support at 1.5182 (S3)
Resistance Levels: 1.5270, 1.5287, 1.5304
Support Levels: 1.5216, 1.5199, 1.5182
USDJPY :
HIGH 98.367 LOW 97.634 BID 98.064 ASK 98.069 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 09 : 05:30
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Next visible fractal level locates at 98.44 (R1). Violation here is required to provide a signal of possible uptrend formation. In such case, resistances at 98.70 (R2) and 98.96 (R3) acts as next attractive points for the bullish oriented traders. Downwards scenario: Negative developments might be settled below the important support level at 97.81 (S1). Any price action below it would then be targeting support at 97.56 (S2) and final target could be exposed at 97.29 (S3) mark.
Resistance Levels: 98.44, 98.70, 98.96
Support Levels: 97.81, 97.56, 97.29
The ink on the provisional bailout agreement for Cyprus was hardly dry last month before bond markets shifted their attention to Slovenia, another small euro- area country with a banking problem. The Slovenian government’s borrowing costs subsequently shot up. The fear that Slovenia might be the next Cyprus, with international creditors again forcing losses onto bank bondholders and uninsured depositors, is only partly justified. Slovenia isn’t Cyprus, and its rescue program, when it comes, will probably look like a hybrid between the Spanish-style bailout and the Cyprus-style bail-in.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/23042013/
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-04-23 04:19 GMT | Upcoming economic data the catalyst for EUR/USD?
2013-04-23 04:08 GMT | USD remains our currency of choice - JPMorgan
2013-04-23 03:29 GMT | EUR/JPY consolidates around 129.00 support, Eur PMI on tap
2013-04-23 02:52 GMT | USD/JPY breaks below 99.00 bids
--------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30677 LOW 1.30328 BID 1.30415 ASK 1.30419 CHANGE -0.19% TIME 08 : 40:20
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD determined clear sideways tone on the medium-term timeframe. Possibility of market appreciation is seen above the resistance level at 1.3056 (R1). Break here is required to validate next targets at 1.3069 (R2) and 1.3082 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh portion of the economic data releases might increase volatility later on today. The 1.3032 (S1) mark is key support level on the downside. Below here is a route towards to next supports at 1.3019 (S2) and 1.3005 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3056, 1.3069, 1.3082
Support Levels: 1.3032, 1.3019, 1.3005
----------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52979 LOW 1.52544 BID 1.52593 ASK 1.52598 CHANGE -0.2% TIME 08 : 40:21
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Neutral tone remains in power on the hourly chart frame. Next resistance is seen at 1.5280 (R1). Clearance here is required for instrument strengthening towards to our initial targets at 1.5297 (R2) and 1.5312 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price failed to overcome our next resistance level we expect market easing below the support level at 1.5248 (S1). Loss here would shift our technical outlook to the bearish side with expected targets at 1.5232 (S2) and 1.5216 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5280, 1.5297, 1.5312
Support Levels: 1.5248, 1.5232, 1.5216
-----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.384 LOW 98.589 BID 98.693 ASK 98.695 CHANGE -0.53% TIME 08 : 40:22
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: USDJPY trades under the bearish pressure today and posting new local lows. Though break above the resistance at 99.35 (R1) would suggest next interim target at 99.73 (R1) en route towards to final aim at 100.13 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, an element of supportive measures is found at 98.53 (S1). Clearance here would suggest further downtrend development towards to possible targets at 98.16 (S2) and 97.76 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 99.35, 99.73, 100.13
Support Levels: 98.53, 98.16, 97.76
The EU signalized on Tuesday that Spain might be granted two more years to reach the deficit target. Additionally, the President of the European Commission José Manuel Durão Barroso said yesterday that 2013 deficit targets for other EU countries could also be eased. EU sources suggested that the European Commission could allow Spain to have a budget deficit of 6.5% this year and that deadline for it to reach 3% could be extended by two more years. Barroso said that the correction of budgetary imbalances in Greece, Portugal and Spain has been very impressive and that the European Commission is considering extending the deadlines for the correction of excessive deficits also for other EU Member States, as the objective is to combine the adjustment of deficits and debt with growth in the short term.
Yesterday weak German PMI data release (47.9 actual vs. 49.1 estimates) fueled more talk of possible ECB rate cuts in the coming months. Although the EURUSD did close below the 1.3000 level, some analysts found the lack of follow through to the downside impressive and believe the key will be to see how it reacts to data in coming sessions. The main report due out today will be the German IFO which is released at 8:00 GMT. Economic data out of the UK is light in the coming session, with Mortgage Approvals due out at 8:30 GMT. The US session will also be fairly quiet with Durable Goods due out at 12:30 GMT.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/24042013/
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-04-24 04:26 GMT | EUR/USD pressured by German PMI data, German IFO on tap next
2013-04-24 03:08 GMT | GBP/USD still forming possible “bear flag” on daily chart
2013-04-24 02:25 GMT | AUD/JPY still range bound after Aussie CPI data disappoints
2013-04-24 02:09 GMT | NZD/USD eases below 0.8450
----------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30104 LOW 1.29882 BID 1.30053 ASK 1.30059 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 44:38
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum on the downside recently, turning short-term bias to the negative side. However upwards penetration above the resistance at 1.3012 (R1) would enable bullish forces and might drive market price towards to our initial targets at 1.3031 (R2) and 1.3051 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important supportive mark at 1.2987 (S1). Depreciation below it might shift medium-term tendency to the bearish side and validate our next intraday targets at 1.2970 (S2) and 1.2953 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3012, 1.3031, 1.3051
Support Levels: 1.2987, 1.2970, 1.2953
----------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52502 LOW 1.52265 BID 1.52483 ASK 1.52491 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 44:38
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Upside formation is limited now to the next resistive barrier at 1.5253 (R1). Clearance here is required to provide a space for a move towards to next target at 1.5267 (R2) and then final aim would be 1.5282 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, any prolonged movement below the support at 1.5225 (S1) might enable downside forces and drive market price towards to supportive means at 1.5211 (S2) and 1.5197 (S3) later on today
Resistance Levels: 1.5253, 1.5267, 1.5282
Support Levels: 1.5225, 1.5211, 1.5197
----------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.761 LOW 99.193 BID 99.386 ASK 99.391 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08 : 44:39
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: USDJPY trapped to the consolidation phase after the upside development. Fresh high at 99.77 (R1) offers a good resistance level. Break here is required to take the pair towards to initial targets at 100.13 (R2) and 100.48 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, prolonged movement below the initial support level at 99.15 (S1) might trigger protective orders execution and drive market price towards to supportive means at 98.77 (S2) and 98.40 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 99.77, 100.13, 100.48
Support Levels: 99.15, 98.77, 98.40
Italian President Giorgio Napolitano, who was reelected to the post last weekend, has given the mandate to form a government to center-left deputy leader Enrico Letta on Wednesday.After accepting the nomination the new Italian Prime Minister said that he would form "a government of service to the country." He stressed that politics in Italy should regain credibility in order to make head against the crisis. He said that the situation in Italy was very difficult at the moment and that the most urgent issues which should be addressed were unemployment, poverty and problems faced by small businesses. He suggested that the Eurozone should not press so much for austerity and rather focus on boosting growth in the area. 46 year old Enrico Letta is the second youngest Prime Minister in the history of Italian politics. He is the nephew of Gianni Letta, Silvio Berlusconi's close ally and despite his young age he has extensive government experience (he held various ministerial positions in the Italian government and served as a Member of the European Parliament for the North-East region) The cabinet formed by Letta will receive support mainly from Berlusconi's People of Freedom (PDL) party, Letta's Democratic Party (PD) and Mario Monti's centrist Civic Choice.
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-april-25-2013/
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-04-25 08:30 GMT | UK. Gross Domestic Product
2013-04-25 12:30 GMT | USA. US Initial Jobless Claims
2013-04-25 14:00 GMT | USA. Treasury Sec Lew Speech
2013-04-25 23:30 GMT | Japan. National Consumer Price Index
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-04-25 05:04 GMT | Window still open for the Yen to recover – JPMorgan
2013-04-25 04:31 GMT | EUR/USD – Will next week’s ECB Rate decision end the range bound behavior?
2013-04-25 03:28 GMT | GBP/USD buoyed by Verizon/Vodafone buzz
2013-04-25 02:25 GMT | AUD/USD drifting higher towards resistance at 1.0345
Upwards scenario: Retracement action is reasonable scenario for EURUSD today. Our focus is shifted to the key resistive barrier at 1.3061 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3079 (R2) and 1.3096 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside expansion would attack our support levels at 1.3017 (S2) and 1.3000 (S3). However prior reaching our targets, market should manage to overcome key resistive structure at 1.3034 (S1).
Resistance Levels: 1.3061, 1.3079, 1.3096
Support Levels: 1.3034, 1.3017, 1.3000
Upwards scenario: The recent price acceleration on the upside suggests a possible move higher. Next on tap is resistive barrier at 1.5334 (R1) on the way towards to higher targets at 1.5347 (R2) and 1.5361 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, if the price failed to gain momentum on the upside we expect retest of our next support level at 1.5298 (S1). Clearance here is required to keep the downside extension intact and enable our lower targets at 1.5285 (S2) and 1.5270 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5334, 1.5347, 1.5361
Support Levels: 1.5298, 1.5285, 1.5270
Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches the 99.77 (R1) mark. Break here would suggest next interim target at 100.13 (R2) and If the price keeps its momentum we expect an exposure of 100.48 (R3). Downwards scenario: Signal of instrument depreciation would be created below the next support level at 99.15 (S1). In such case we would suggest next interim target at 98.77 (S2) and then our final aim at 98.40 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 99.77, 100.13, 100.48
Support Levels: 99.15, 98.77, 98.40
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
All eyes on the ECB
This week's data releases were disappointing on balance. While economic numbers in the US and China continued to come in on a weak(er) note, the eurozone's business climate readings failed to improve again. The UK's GDP report, however, was a nice exception, showing that the economy returned to growth earlier this year. With German business sentiment figures down again (but overall still signaling growth), the French numbers pretty mixed at low levels and Italy's reading (to be released next Thursday) likely up from depressed lows, EMU-wide sentiment does not show signs of recovery after the weakness of the last two months. This should further challenge the ECB's expectations of a stabilization in activity in 1H13 followed by a gradual recovery in the second half of the year. Coupled with recent dovish remarks from Council members and the "lively debate" during the last meeting, this indicates that the central bank should cut the refi rate (but not the deposit rate) by 25bp within the next five weeks. The exact timing of the rate cut is a close call. But our guess is that June is more likely than May, also because the ECB will have the 1Q13 GDP numbers at hand and will have finished its macroeconomic update procedure by then.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/26042013/
N/A | Japan. BoJ Interest Rate Decision
2013-04-26 08:00 GMT | Switzerland. SNB Chairman Jordan Speech
2013-04-26 12:30 GMT | USA. Gross Domestic Product Annualized
2013-04-26 13:55 GMT | USA. US Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
2013-04-26 04:54 GMT | USD/JPY dives lower after Bank of Japan monetary policy release
2013-04-26 04:07 GMT | EUR/USD choppy trade continues, ECB meeting on tap next week
2013-04-26 02:14 GMT | AUD/USD higher on weaker USD and stronger commodities
2013-04-26 02:14 GMT | US Dollar leaking lower during Asia trade
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30474 LOW 1.29977 BID 1.30294 ASK 1.30301 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08 : 45:17
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Price stabilized after the yesterday depreciation. Today we see potential to overcome our next resistance level at 1.3049 (R1). Clearance here might pull the pair towards to eventual targets at 1.3066 (R2) and 1.3082 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, market bias remains negative. Risk of further decline is seen below the key support level at 1.3017 (S1). Break here is required to validate lower targets at 1.3000 (S2) and 1.2982 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3049, 1.3066, 1.3082
Support Levels: 1.3017, 1.3000, 1.2982
--------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.54716 LOW 1.54287 BID 1.54539 ASK 1.54546 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08 : 45:17
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Current price setup is looking for upwards extension possibility. Risk of the price acceleration is seen above the key resistance level at 1.5479 (R1). Clearance here would put immediate focus on the next targets at 1.5502 (R2) and then 1.5524 (R3). Downwards scenario: Bearish pressure might push the price below the support at 1.5426 (S1). Further correction development would open road towards to next target at 1.5402 (S2) and any further losses would then be limited to 1.5378 (S3) mark.
Resistance Levels: 1.5479, 1.5502, 1.5524
Support Levels: 1.5426, 1.5402, 1.5378
-----------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.411 LOW 98.225 BID 98.552 ASK 98.559 CHANGE -0.7% TIME 08 : 45:18
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Price accelerates on the downside though chance of market appreciation is seen above the key resistance at 99.22 (R1). Next targets could be found 99.66 (R2) and 100.07 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the next resistance level our medium-term outlook would be negative. Next on tap is support level at 98.17 (S1). Penetration below this mark would suggest next targets at 97.78 (S2) and 97.39 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 99.22, 99.66, 100.07
Support Levels: 98.17, 97.78, 97.39
EUR/USD – The week we’ve all been waiting for? ECB and Fed meetings on tap
EUR/USD has started the week off on a strong note, benefiting from the headlines that Enrico Letta has been elected as the new Italian Prime Minister. At one point earlier in the session, the pair had traded as high as 1.3068, but is now back to consolidating near the opening print of 1.3050. According to analysts at FXStreet.com, “After two months of an irreconcilable political deadlock, Enrico Letta, 46, and member of the centre-left Democratic Party (PD), was sworn in as new Italian Prime Minister on Sunday. Letta, who has managed to pull together a 21-member Cabinet, while becoming the third youngest Prime Minister since World War II, nominated an unprecedented seven women to his Cabinet. Fabrizio Saccomanni was appointed finance minister, taking on the responsibility to overlook and bring forward much needed economic reforms to the economy.”
The main event later this week will be the upcoming ECB Monetary Policy meeting on May 2nd at 11:45 GMT. Analysts have been pointing to the weak economic data from Germany, and continued dovish comments from ECB officials as a good reason to expect an adjustment to current policy.
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-april-29-2013/
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-04-29 12:00 GMT DE. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Apr)Preliminar
2013-04-29 12:00 GMT DE. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Apr)Preliminar
2013-04-29 12:00 GMT DE. Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) (Apr)Preliminar
2013-04-29 12:00 GMT DE. Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Apr)Preliminar
FOREX NEWS :
2013-04-29 04:14 GMT EUR/USD – The week we’ve all been waiting for? ECB and Fed meetings on tap
2013-04-29 03:58 GMT AUD/USD to stay near 1.05 next few quarters
2013-04-29 03:04 GMT USD/JPY continues to trade lower, breaks through initial support of 97.55
2013-04-29 00:31 GMT GPB/USD adds to gains during Asia session
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Forex Technical Analysis EURUSD :
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3076 (R1). Price evaluation above this level would suggest next targets at 1.3094 (R2) and 1.3111 (R3). Downwards scenario: Price regress below the support level at 1.3037 (S1) would increase likelihood of failing towards to our key supportive barrier at 1.3026 (S2) and any further market decline would then be targeting final support for today at 1.3014 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3076, 1.3094, 1.3111
Support Levels: 1.3037, 1.3026, 1.3014
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Forex Technical Analysis GBPUSD :
Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 1.5525 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 1.5546 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.5571 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further correction development is limited now to 1.5481 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5454 (S2) and 1.5426 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5525, 1.5546, 1.5571
Support Levels: 1.5481, 1.5454, 1.5426
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Forex Technical Analysis USDJPY :
Upwards scenario: Market comfortably moves in descending channel formation on the hourly chart. If pair gains momentum on the upside and overcome our next resistance at 97.97 (R1), we would suggest next resistances at 98.16 (R2) and 98.34 (R3) as intraday targets. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, successful retest of our next support level at 97.45 (S1) might provide sufficient momentum for the price acceleration towards to interim target at 97.27 (S2). Final aim for today locates at 97.08 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 97.97, 98.16, 98.34
Support Levels: 97.45, 97.27, 97.08
Posted: Wed May 01, 2013 11:22 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 01 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 01 2013
FOMC Meeting -- a major catalyst or non-event?
The EUR/USD finished the day sharply higher, closing up 0.55% at 1.3166. Intra-day the pair traded as high as 1.3186 but was once again unable to take out the 1.3200 level. All eyes will be on the upcoming US session, with both Construction Spending and ISM Manufacturing PMI due out at 14:00 GMT. Following this data, we will get the Federal Reserve Monetary Policy statement at 18:00GMT. However, with all the hype surrounding the upcoming economic data due out of the US, some analysts are saying not to look too much into the release and the effect on the US Dollar might be minimal.
According to Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management, “Given the recent disappointments in economic data, it will be very difficult for the hawks inside the Fed to justify hardening their call for a rate cut. In contrast, the doves will sing louder about the need for maintain the current level of stimulus. However none of these discussions are likely to appear in the FOMC statement.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/01052013/
FOREX NEWS :
2013-05-01 03:29 GMT : GBP/USD finishes higher for a fifth straight day, closes April +1.41%
2013-05-01 02:40 GMT : AUD/JPY still forming “pennant” pattern on daily chart
2013-05-01 01:53 GMT : EUR/USD quiet during Asia session, resistance at 1.3200 remains in focus
2013-05-01 01:13 GMT : AUD/USD near highs after China PMI
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3179 LOW 1.31603 BID 1.31643 ASK 1.31649 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 13:27
OUTLOOK SUMMARY :
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Neutral hourly studies point towards further consolidation, with a break of next resistive structure at 1.3185 (R1) is required to spark stronger upside action. In such scenario we would suggest our next initial targets at 1.3213 (R2) and 1.3239 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support level is seen at 1.3156 (S1), any penetration below it might activate downside pressure and enable lower target at 1.3120 (S2). Any further market decline would then be limited to 1.3084 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3185, 1.3213, 1.3239
Support Levels: 1.3156, 1.3120, 1.3084
-----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.55468 LOW 1.55262 BID 1.55344 ASK 1.55353 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 13:27
OUTLOOK SUMMARY :
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 1.5563 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 1.5590 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.5629 (R3). Downwards scenario: Successful retest of our next support level at 1.5527 (S1) might provide sufficient momentum for the price acceleration towards to interim target at 1.5507 (S2). Final aim for today locates at 1.5481 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5563, 1.5590, 1.5629
Support Levels: 1.5527, 1.5507, 1.5481
------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 97.465 LOW 97.049 BID 97.276 ASK 97.280 CHANGE -0.14% TIME 08 : 13:28
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 97.42 (R1). Price extension above it is required to validate our next intraday targets at 97.61 (R2) and 97.82 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price manages to overcome our next support barrier at 97.11 (S1), we expect to see further market decline towards to our next target at 96.89 (S2) and then next stop could be found at 96.70 (S3) mark.
Resistance Levels: 97.42, 97.61, 97.82
Support Levels: 97.11, 96.89, 96.70
Posted: Thu May 02, 2013 11:41 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 02 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 02 2013
Will the ECB Kill the EUR Rally?
The euro has performed extremely well leading up to Thursday's European Central Bank monetary policy announcement. In fact, it may be hard for some investors to believe that the majority of economists are looking for the ECB to cut interest rates by 25bp. Traditionally, expectations for easier monetary policy is negative for a currency but in the case of the euro, since the central bank started dropping hints about the potential for lower rates and economic data confirmed the need for more stimulus, the euro appreciated in value, rising to its highest level against the U.S. dollar in 2 months today.
The European Central Bank has done a great job of setting expectations for this month's monetary policy meeting. They are known for preparing the market for any upcoming changes in policy with the hopes of minimizing volatility when the actual change is made. Since the last meeting, we have heard consistently cautious comments from policymakers who all sound as if they are warming to idea of more stimulus if data warrants it and it certainly does given the widespread weakness in German business, consumer and investor confidence along with the decline in manufacturing and service activity. - https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/02052013/
FOREX NEWS :
2013-05-02 03:00 GMT | GBP/USD - Another day of gains, but unable to take out 1.5600 resistance
2013-05-02 02:23 GMT | AUD/USD continues to lose ground in Asia session
2013-05-02 00:43 GMT | EUR/USD forms a false break at 1.32
2013-05-02 00:08 GMT | USD/JPY slips to session lows post-BoJ minutes
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31898 LOW 1.31662 BID 1.31709 ASK 1.31713 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 08 : 12:16
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Next barrier on the upside lie at 1.3185 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable our initial target at 1.3213 (R2) and any further gains would then be limited to last resistive structure at 1.3239 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, successful retest of our next support level at 1.3156 (S1) might provide sufficient momentum for the price acceleration towards the interim target at 1.3120 (S2). Final aim for today locates at 1.3084 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3185, 1.3213, 1.3239
Support Levels: 1.3156, 1.3120, 1.3084
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.55724 LOW 1.55409 BID 1.55475 ASK 1.55483 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08 : 12:17
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.5573 (R1). Price extension above it is required to validate our next intraday targets at 1.5598 (R2) and 1.5629 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price manages to overcome our next support barrier at 1.5527 (S1), we expect to see further market decline towards to our next target at 1.5507 (S2) and then next stop could be found at 1.5481 (S3) mark.
Resistance Levels: 1.5573, 1.5598, 1.5629
Support Levels: 1.5527, 1.5507, 1.5481
USDJPY :
HIGH 97.422 LOW 97.088 BID 97.191 ASK 97.195 CHANGE -0.21% TIME 08 : 12:18
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Pair has settled sideways formation on the hourly timeframe. However potential to move higher is seen above the resistance level at 97.42 (R1) mark. Loss here would suggest next intraday targets at 97.61 (R2) and 97.82 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, our next support level aligns at 97.11 (S1) and possible price regress below it might encounter downside rally. In such scenario we would suggest next intraday targets to be placed at 96.89 (S2) and 96.70 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 97.42, 97.61, 97.82
Support Levels: 97.11, 96.89, 96.70
Posted: Fri May 03, 2013 11:00 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 03 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 03 2013
Sustainability of Dollar Rally Hinges on Payrolls
With the European Central Bank's monetary policy announcement behind us, the focus of the forex market will now turn to the non-farm payrolls report. The newly delivered stimulus from the ECB and the better than expected U.S. jobless claims report boosted the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar against all major currencies. Whether or not the sell-off in the EUR/USD and rally in USD/JPY can be sustained will hinge on Friday's non-farm payrolls report. This week's FOMC statement tell us that that Federal Reserve officials aren't overly concerned about the health of the labor market as they completely ignored last month's sharp drop in payrolls, choosing instead to repeat that the labor market is improving.
They better be right or else the dollar and U.S. stocks for that matter will come crashing down. Currently economists are looking for payrolls to rise by 140K in April, up from 88K in March. The drop in jobless claims and consumer confidence supports a stronger release and we believe that as long as payrolls rise by 150K or more, the dollar will rally. By cutting interest rates today and signaling that they are prepared to do more, the ECB has set a low bar for tomorrow's NFP release.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/03052013/
FOREX NEWS :
2013-05-03 02:50 GMT | GBP/USD ends six day winning streak, fails again at 1.5600 resistance
2013-05-03 02:12 GMT | GBP/JPY closes higher but remains in consolidation on daily chart
2013-05-03 01:22 GMT | AUD/NZD pressing lower against 1.2050 level
2013-05-03 01:02 GMT | EUR/USD volatile day ends with sharply lower close
------------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30775 LOW 1.30555 BID 1.30710 ASK 1.30715 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 08 : 19:12
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 1.3084 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 1.3120 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.3156 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further correction development is limited now to the session low - 1.3057 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3037 (S2) and 1.3016 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3084, 1.3120, 1.3156
Support Levels: 1.3057, 1.3037, 1.3016
------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.55408 LOW 1.552 BID 1.55240 ASK 1.55248 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08 : 19:13
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 1.5573 (R1). Clearance here is required to validate next interim target at 1.5598 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting mark at 1.5629 (R3). Downwards scenario: We would shift our short-term technical outlook to the negative if the price manage to penetrate below the key support at 1.5522 (S1). Loss here would suggest next initial targets at 1.5489 (S2) and 1.5448 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5573, 1.5598, 1.5629
Support Levels: 1.5522, 1.5489, 1.5448
-------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 98.052 LOW 97.881 BID 97.987 ASK 97.991 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 08 : 19:14
OUTLOOK SUMMARY :
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Next actual resistance level is seen at 98.15 (R1). If the market manages to surge higher, our focus would returned to the next target at 98.51 (R2) and further recovery action could be exhausted at 98.85 (R3) intraday. Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 97.82 (S1). Break here is required to open a route towards to next target at 97.61 (S2) and then any further easing would be targeting final support at 97.42 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 98.15, 98.51, 98.85
Support Levels: 97.82, 97.61, 97.42
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
Posted: Mon May 06, 2013 11:31 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 06 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 06 2013
EUR/USD still searching for direction after busy week of economic data
After what was an extremely busy week of economic releases and central bank monetary policy meetings, the EUR/USD finished the week up 87 pips at 1.3116. The price action remains extremely choppy with neither side being able to sustain any follow through for a substantial amount of time. Many analysts are now wondering whether or not the “risk on” mentality which was boosted by the better than expected US Jobs data will have any follow through going into upcoming week and how will it influence the foreign exchange market.
According to Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management, “Investors put on their rose colored glasses today and drove currencies and equities sharply higher on the back of stronger job growth in the month of April. At a time when other central banks like the ECB and BoJ are kick starting a new round of easing, the better than expected labor market report will keep the Fed comfortably on hold. The question now is whether the payroll driven rally in FX (and stocks) will last. With far less important data on the calendar next week, we think investors will remain optimistic.”
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-may-06-2013/
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-05-06 13:00 GMT | EU.ECB President Draghi's Speech
2013-05-06 14:00 GMT | CA.Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Apr)
2013-05-06 14:00 GMT | CA.Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a (Apr)
2013-05-06 23:30 GMT | AUD.AiG Performance of Construction Index (Apr)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-05-06 04:09 GMT | EUR/USD still searching for direction after busy week of economic data
2013-05-06 03:18 GMT | GBP/JPY notches highest close since August 2009
2013-05-06 01:44 GMT | AUD/USD edges lower after weak Aussie retail sales number
2013-05-06 01:02 GMT | NZD/USD edges higher in early Asia trade
Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 1.3156 (R1). Clearance here is required to validate next interim target at 1.3185 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting mark at 1.3219 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, instrument retests our next support level at 1.3117 (S1) today. Market decline below it would create a stronger bearish sentiment and enable our interim target at 1.3084 (S2). Final support for today locates at 1.3057 (S3).
Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 1.5525 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 1.5546 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.5571 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further correction development is limited now to 1.5481 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5454 (S2) and 1.5426 (S3).
Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 92.02 (R1). Price extension above it is required to validate our next intraday targets at 98.16 (R2) and 98.30 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 97.59 (S1). Break here is required to open a route towards to next target at 97.42 (S2) and then any further easing would be targeting final support at 97.27 (S3).
Posted: Tue May 07, 2013 10:37 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 07 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 07 2013
EUR/USD still searching for direction after busy week of economic data
After what was an extremely busy week of economic releases and central bank monetary policy meetings, the EUR/USD finished the week up 87 pips at 1.3116. The price action remains extremely choppy with neither side being able to sustain any follow through for a substantial amount of time. Many analysts are now wondering whether or not the “risk on” mentality which was boosted by the better than expected US Jobs data will have any follow through going into upcoming week and how will it influence the foreign exchange market.
According to Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management, “Investors put on their rose colored glasses today and drove currencies and equities sharply higher on the back of stronger job growth in the month of April. At a time when other central banks like the ECB and BoJ are kick starting a new round of easing, the better than expected labor market report will keep the Fed comfortably on hold. The question now is whether the payroll driven rally in FX (and stocks) will last. With far less important data on the calendar next week, we think investors will remain optimistic.”
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/06052013/
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-05-06 13:00 GMT | EU.ECB President Draghi's Speech
2013-05-06 14:00 GMT | CA.Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Apr)
2013-05-06 14:00 GMT | CA.Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a (Apr)
2013-05-06 23:30 GMT | AUD.AiG Performance of Construction Index (Apr)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-05-06 04:09 GMT | EUR/USD still searching for direction after busy week of economic data
2013-05-06 03:18 GMT | GBP/JPY notches highest close since August 2009
2013-05-06 01:44 GMT | AUD/USD edges lower after weak Aussie retail sales number
2013-05-06 01:02 GMT | NZD/USD edges higher in early Asia trade
-----------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31408 LOW 1.31084 BID 1.31214 ASK 1.31219 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 08 : 16:42
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 1.3156 (R1). Clearance here is required to validate next interim target at 1.3185 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting mark at 1.3219 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, instrument retests our next support level at 1.3117 (S1) today. Market decline below it would create a stronger bearish sentiment and enable our interim target at 1.3084 (S2). Final support for today locates at 1.3057 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3156, 1.3185, 1.3219
Support Levels: 1.3117, 1.3084, 1.3057
-----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.55981 LOW 1.55334 BID 1.55812 ASK 1.55823 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08 : 16:42
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: While price is quoted above the moving averages out technical outlook would be positive. Yesterday high offers next resistance level at 1.5598 (R1). Any price action above it would suggest next targets at 1.5629 (R2) and 1.5659 (S3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 1.5573 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 1.5550 (S2) and 1.5522 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5598, 1.5629, 1.5659
Support Levels: 1.5573, 1.5550, 1.5522
------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.205 LOW 99.06 BID 99.095 ASK 99.099 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 16:43
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: Medium term bias remains positive however further market rise is limited now to the key resistive barrier at 99.27 (R1), clearance here is required to enable next resistances at 99.60 (R2) and last one at 99.88 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the short-term perspective the pair might encounter supportive measures at 98.97 (S1). Loss here might change intraday technical structure and opens the way for a test of 98.57 (S2) and 98.15 (S3) later on today.
Posted: Wed May 08, 2013 10:58 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 08 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 08 2013
What Equity Rally Says About Currencies
Over the past week, all of the action has been in equities. U.S. stocks powered to new record highs while currencies consolidated quietly. The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro and Japanese Yen and strengthened against the British pound, Swiss Franc, Australian and New Zealand dollars. This divergent price action confirms that there isn't one directional interest in currencies. Part of the reason why currencies have not enjoyed the same type of strong trend as equities is because this is a QE driven rally and with central banks around the world engaged in new rounds of easing, the availability of more stimulus has been ambiguously positive for stocks. Unfortunately these simultaneous easing programs has also clouded the outlook for currencies as investors wonder which central bank will win the race to debase.
The rally in stocks and consolidation in currencies also tells us that investors are much more interested in joining the trend in equities than try to figure out whether support or resistance will be broken in currencies. Eventually this will change but for the time being we can't ignore the fact that the big moves are happening in other markets. However what stocks have done for currencies is keep them supported - if not for the equity market rally, we would have probably seen a deeper sell-off in the EUR/USD and AUD/USD.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/08052013/
FOREX NEWS :
2013-05-08 04:35 GMT | EUR/USD unable to find direction as global equities continue higher
2013-05-08 03:32 GMT | GBP/USD rally runs out of steam, finishes day sharply lower
2013-05-08 02:37 GMT | Aussie attempting to claw back some losses during Asia trade
2013-05-08 00:24 GMT | USD/JPY edging lower during early Asia trade
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30975 LOW 1.30716 BID 1.30926 ASK 1.30932 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 12:49
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: While price is quoted above the moving averages out technical outlook would be positive. Yesterday high offers next resistance level at 1.3119 (R1). Any price action above it would suggest next targets at 1.3156 (R2) and 1.3185 (S3). Downwards scenario: Next support level is seen at 1.3072 (S1), any penetration below it might activate downside pressure and enable lower target at 1.3043 (S2). Any further market decline would then be limited to 1.3010 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3119, 1.3156, 1.3185
Support Levels: 1.3072, 1.3043, 1.3010
--------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.54891 LOW 1.54704 BID 1.54798 ASK 1.54805 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 12:50
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: GBP extended its decline versus the USD and determined a negative short-term technical outlook. However above the resistance at 1.5488 (R1) opens a route towards to next resistive measures at 1.5503 (R2) and 1.5522 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 1.5474 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 1.5460 (S2) and 1.5449 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5488, 1.5503, 1.5522
Support Levels: 1.5474, 1.5460, 1.5449
-------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.15 LOW 98.64 BID 98.965 ASK 98.969 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 12:51
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: Yesterday high offers key resistance level at 99.27 (R1). Clearance here is required to resume uptrend structure towards to next target at 99.43 (R2) and any further price appreciation would then be limited to last resistance for today at 99.63 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, price pattern suggests bearish potential if the instrument manages to overcome next support level at 98.78 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 98.62 (S2) and 98.40 (S3) in potential.
Posted: Thu May 09, 2013 11:20 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 09 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 09 2013
EUR/USD notches a solid day of gains as ‘risk on’ mentality continues
In a day where risk assets were primarily well bid across the board, the Euro was able to notch some decent gains, finishing up 81 pips at 1.3159. The initial catalyst which seemed to help push the pair higher was the German Industrial Production (MoM) release which came in at 1.2% actual vs. -0.1% forecast. According to analysts at TD Securities, “In Europe, a solid German industrial production release has boosted the EUR. Not significantly though, as the very well established range that has held since early April remains firmly intact. EUR focus remains on the evolving ECB message, which as we heard last week remains open to another rate cut. They have not signaled any balance sheet expanding programs, however, which overall could leave the EUR well supported.”
The German data also seemed to give a boost to both commodities and equities, with oil notching its’ highest close since late March and the S&P 500 closing at a new all time high of 1632.59. The recent behavior of the EUR/USD is beyond confusing as it appears to follow risk assets some days and others have no correlation to outside markets at all. Although it must be noted, the EUR does continue to outperform the commodity currencies such as the AUD and NZD. http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-may-09-2013/
FOREX NEWS :
2013-05-09 03:11 GMT | GBP/USD continues to consolidate ahead BOE Rate Decision
2013-05-09 01:19 GMT | Aussie rockets higher after AUD jobs data crushes estimates
2013-05-09 01:19 GMT | EUR/JPY ready for the next leg up?
2013-05-08 23:42 GMT | AUD/JPY finishes slightly lower after narrow range day
Upwards scenario: Instrument stabilized after the gains provided yesterday. Penetration above the resistive structure at 1.3185 (R1) might encourage protective orders execution and drive market price towards to the next resistive means at 1.3206 (R2) and 1.3226 (R3). Downwards scenario: On a slightly longer term we expect pullback formation. Risk of market depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.3152 (S1). Clearance here would suggest lower targets at 1.3128 (S2) and 1.3105 (S3) in potential.
Upwards scenario: Pair has settled sideways formation on the hourly timeframe. However potential to move higher is seen above the resistance level at 1.5549 (R1) mark. Loss here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5565 (R2) and 1.5581 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside expansion would attack our support levels at 1.5517(S2) and 1.5498 (S3). However prior reaching our targets, market should manage to overcome the resistive structure at 1.5533 (S1).
Upwards scenario: USD/JPY tested negative side the past days, however break above the resistance at 99.00 (R1) is liable to stimulate bullish pressure and validate next targets at 99.14 (R2) and 99.27 (R3). Downwards scenario: Loss of our support level at 96.68 (S1) would open road for a market decline towards to our next target at 98.57 (S2). Any further price weakening would then be limited to final support for today at 98.40 (S3).
Posted: Fri May 10, 2013 11:45 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 10 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 10 2013
Will a busy economic schedule next week be the catalyst for EUR/USD?
The EUR/USD finished the day down 116 pips at 1.3044. Economic data was quiet for the most part but weekly jobless claims out of the US came in better than expected at 323k vs. 3.35k forecast. The US Dollar was well bid across the board, with the majority of action taking place in the USD/JPY which crossed the 100 threshold for the first time in four years. This seemed to help provide additional USD buying against other pairs, and also helped limit advances in commodities which were primarily lower for the day. Economic releases out of the Eurozone in the coming session include German Trade Balance, Italian Industrial Production, and EU Consumer Price Index.
After the better than expected jobs number past Friday, and another week of improvement in continued claims, some analysts view it as a sign the US Dollar could be set up for further gains in coming weeks. Furthermore, if we see continued gains in USD/JPY it could also be a tailwind and help the US Dollar remain well bid in other pairs. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/10052013/
FOREX NEWS :
2013-05-10 04:36 GMT | Kiwi edging lower in Asia trade
2013-05-10 01:59 GMT | USD/JPY, bulls officially staring at 101.00 from the rear mirror
2013-05-10 01:03 GMT | AUD/USD feeling the selling pressure ahead of RBA statement
2013-05-10 00:28 GMT | USD/JPY completes ‘pennant’ pattern on daily chart, further gains ahead?
----------------------
EURUSD
HIGH 1.30467 LOW 1.30214 BID 1.30451 ASK 1.30455 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 20:08
OUTLOOK SUMMARY Down
TREND CONDITION Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.3056 (R1). Price extension above it is required to validate our next intraday targets at 1.3079 (R2) and 1.3105 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside penetration is limited to the initial support level at 1.3010 (S1). A breach of which would open a route towards to next target at 1.2987 (S2) and potentially could expose our final support for today at 1.2965 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3056, 1.3079, 1.3105
Support Levels: 1.3010, 1.2987, 1.2965
----------------------
GBPUSD
HIGH 1.54572 LOW 1.54377 BID 1.54487 ASK 1.54490 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 20:09
OUTLOOK SUMMARY Down
TREND CONDITION Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium
Upwards scenario: Market formed gradual descending move however price appreciation is possible above the next resistance level at 1.5460 (R1). Break here is required to enable next attractive points at 1.5487 (R2) and 1.5516 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support at 1.5427 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective. As a result our supportive means at 1.5402 (S2) and 1.5380 (S3) might be triggered.
Resistance Levels: 1.5460, 1.5487, 1.5516
Support Levels: 1.5427, 1.5402, 1.5380
----------------------
USDJPY
HIGH 101.197 LOW 100.54 BID 100.937 ASK 100.942 CHANGE 0.32% TIME 08 : 20:10
OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up
TREND CONDITION Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium
Upwards scenario: USD/JPY continue its consolidation phase on the hourly chart. Possibility of uptrend evolvement is seen above the next resistance at 101.11 (R1). Violation here might increase bullish pressure and validate next intraday targets at 101.47 (R2) and 101.83 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further correction development is limited now to the session low - 100.56 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it we would suggest next intraday targets at 100.18 (S2) and 99.75 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 101.11, 101.47, 101.83
Support Levels: 100.56, 100.18, 99.75
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
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