Posted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 11:34 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 27 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 27 2013
EU FinMin reach deal on bank resolution rules
EU Finance Ministers reached, at the second attempt, an agreement on the new policy to manage restructuring and liquidation of banks. The deal is part of efforts to establish a banking union, which has as ultimate objective to break the link between bank debt and sovereign debt. The EcoFin meeting, celebrated ahead of Thursday's EU Summit, agreed what types of creditors must take losses in future banking crises, according to diplomatic sources. The draft document ensures that depositors with savings under €100,000 will be protected from any loss. The agreement has to be now ratified by the heads of state and government at the summit.
German unemployment and Eurozone confidence numbers are also scheduled for release today and the outcome of these reports will impact the market's expectations for ECB policy and in turn the euro. If the data is good, then the central bank's threat to increase stimulus will fall on deaf ears. Just this morning ECB President Draghi reminded everyone that the central bank stands ready to act if necessary. Unfortunately based on the latest PMI numbers, labor market conditions most likely deteriorated in the month of June and if the data is weak, confirming that ECB policy will trail far behind the Fed, the euro could find itself trading closer to 1.29. In terms of confidence, it will be tough call since there has been both strength and weakness in the latest IFO and ZEW surveys. These numbers shouldn't be as important as German unemployment.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/27062013/
FOREX NEWS :
2013-06-27 04:58 GMT | AUD/CAD, mid/low 0.99 might be retested
2013-06-27 04:54 GMT | GBP/USD bounces from sub-1.53 support
2013-06-27 04:31 GMT | EUR/USD, key day to further define sentiment
2013-06-27 03:52 GMT | AUD/USD, 0.9330/40 still proves challenging
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30353 LOW 1.30046 BID 1.30350 ASK 1.30353 CHANGE 0.18% TIME 08 : 45:58
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Market price penetrated above the moving averages and determined corrective phase from the initial downtrend formation. On the way is key resistive measure at 1.3058 (R1), break here is required to achieve higher targets at 1.3085 (R2) and 1.3112 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, we would shift our intraday technical outlook to the negative side if the price manage to penetrate below the next support at 1.3014 (S1). Clearance here is required to enable intraday targets at 1.2988 (S2) and 1.2961 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3058, 1.3085, 1.3112
Support Levels: 1.3014, 1.2988, 1.2961
----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.5346 LOW 1.53087 BID 1.53355 ASK 1.53356 CHANGE 0.15% TIME 08 : 45:59
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Medium term bias remains negative and possible price appreciation is limited to resistive barrier at 1.5363 (R1). Prolonged movement above that level would suggest next targets at 1.5392 (R2) and 1.5421 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside next challenge is seen at 1.5314 (S1). Breakthrough here would open road for a downside expansion towards to our initial targets at 1.5286 (S2) and 1.5257 (R3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 1.5363, 1.5392, 1.5421
Support Levels: 1.5314, 1.5286, 1.5257
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USDJPY :
HIGH 97.86 LOW 97.565 BID 97.731 ASK 97.735 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 46:00
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: USDJPY trapped to the consolidation mode after the initial uptrend development. Next resistive barrier is seen at 97.92 (R1), break here is required to enable next attractive points at 98.14 (R2) and 98.37 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside expansion is protected by support level at 97.51 (S1), break here would put bullish oriented traders on hold. Marks at 97.28 (S2) and 97.05 (S3) is the next supportive bastion on the way.
Resistance Levels: 97.92, 98.14, 98.37
Support Levels: 97.51, 97.28, 97.05
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
Posted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 10:45 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 28 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 28 2013
Should the Dollar be Worried about Fed Comments?
Fed Presidents Dudley, Powell and Lockhart spoke yesterday and with the first 2 being voting members of the FOMC this year, its no surprise that their comments triggered intraday volatility in the dollar. All 3 Fed Presidents said that it may be appropriate for the central bank to taper asset purchases in 2013 and end QE buying in mid-2014 but the markets chose to hone in on Dudley's comment that QE depends on the economic outlook and not the calendar and could be prolonged if the economy misses their forecasts. There's no question that the recent rise in U.S. yields has irritated central bankers but the fact Dudley still repeated Bernanke's timing after qualifying the conditions for QE means that this uber dove is most likely onboard with the idea of reducing asset purchases. Fed President Powell's stance was similar - while he sees the central bank scaling back purchases this year, he said it is data and not date dependent. Both Dudley and Lockhart didn't see Bernanke's press conference last week as a strong signal of Fed policy or a major shift but rather a "soft notion" of when QE could end.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/28062013/
FOREX NEWS :
2013-06-28 05:27 GMT | AUD/JPY set to recover towards 94.00 - Westpac
2013-06-28 04:32 GMT | GBP/USD struggles around the 20 hourly EMA
2013-06-28 03:29 GMT | EUR/AUD easing below 1.4150
2013-06-28 02:58 GMT | USD/JPY prints fresh weekly highs shy of 99.00
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30747 LOW 1.30301 BID 1.30613 ASK 1.30618 CHANGE 0.19% TIME 08 : 16:12
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: An element of resistive measure could be found at 1.3077 (R1). Clearance here would open way towards to higher target at 1.3101 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to last resistance at 1.3124 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible price depreciation is limited to next support barrier at 1.3042 (S1). Break here is required to enable further downtrend formation towards to lower targets at 1.3018 (S2) and 1.2993 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3077, 1.3101, 1.3124
Support Levels: 1.3042, 1.3018, 1.2993
-------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52745 LOW 1.52413 BID 1.52688 ASK 1.52695 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08 : 16:13
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD commenced its consolidation phase on the hourly chart today. Possibility of uptrend evolvement is seen above the next resistance at 1.5283 (R1). Violation here might increase bullish pressure and validate next intraday targets at 1.5311 (R2) and 1.5338 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.5240 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5213 (S2) and 1.5186 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.5283, 1.5311, 1.5338
Support Levels: 1.5240, 1.5213, 1.5186
-------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.022 LOW 98.335 BID 98.844 ASK 98.849 CHANGE 0.51% TIME 08 : 16:14
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Market sentiment is improved for the bullish oriented traders however further appreciation needs to clear barrier at 99.06 (R1) to enable our interim target at 99.36 (R2) and then any further gains would be limited to last resistance at 99.67 (R3). Downwards scenario: While instrument trades above the moving averages, our short-term bias would stay positive though penetration below the support level at 98.58 (S1) might open way towards to lower targets at 98.27 (S2) and 97.97 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 99.06, 99.36, 99.67
Support Levels: 98.58, 98.27, 97.97
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
The Chinese top banking regulatory body appeased fears over the credit crunch in the country, saying that liquidity remains ample for the interbank needs. Regulators reassured the markets by pledging to tighten risk controls over local government, real estate and shadow banking. The chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, Mr. Shang, said "excess reserves more than double amount necessary", although Shanga failed to provide further details on how they intend to reduce shadow banking practices.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/01072013/
FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-01 04:59 GMT | GBP/USD stalls the decline above 1.5200
2013-07-01 04:50 GMT | Will the big USD rally be sustainable?
2013-07-01 03:36 GMT | AUD/USD breaking above 0.9180
2013-07-01 02:17 GMT | EUR/AUD hovering above 1.4200
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30325 LOW 1.30053 BID 1.30286 ASK 1.30289 CHANGE 0.16% TIME 08 : 40:42
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Without tier one macroeconomic news announcement neutral mode remains favored. Clearance of next resistance level at 1.3040 (R1) might enable bullish pressure and open route towards to our next targets at 1.3062 (R2) and 1.3084 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside extension might face next supportive barrier at 1.2990 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to interim target at 1.2971 (S2) and any further price regress would then be targeting 1.2951 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3040, 1.3062, 1.3084
Support Levels: 1.2990, 1.2971, 1.2951
----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52265 LOW 1.51953 BID 1.52248 ASK 1.52258 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 40:43
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: Descending structure on GBPUSD suggests possible correction ahead. Break above the resistance at 1.5240 (R1) would clear the way towards to higher target at 1.5271 (R2). Further price appreciation would face then final resistive measure at 1.5303 (R3) Downwards scenario: Next support level lies at 1.5187 (S1). Penetration below it might shift medium-term tone to the negative side. Our intraday targets locates at 1.5159 (S2) and 1.5130 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5240, 1.5271, 1.5303
Support Levels: 1.5187, 1.5159, 1.5130
--------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.54 LOW 99.176 BID 99.389 ASK 99.396 CHANGE 0.25% TIME 08 : 40:44
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: USDJPY clearly determined positive bias on the medium-term perspective. Penetration above the resistive structure at 99.56 (R1) might encourage protective orders execution and drive market price towards to the next resistive means at 99.84 (R2) and 100.11 (R3). Downwards scenario: Price regress below the support level at 99.13 (S1) would increase likelihood of failing towards to the next supportive barrier at 98.85 (S2) and any further correction development would then be targeting final support at 98.58 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 99.56, 99.84, 100.11
Support Levels: 99.13, 98.85, 98.58
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
The Chinese top banking regulatory body appeased fears over the credit crunch in the country, saying that liquidity remains ample for the interbank needs. Regulators reassured the markets by pledging to tighten risk controls over local government, real estate and shadow banking. The chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, Mr. Shang, said "excess reserves more than double amount necessary", although Shanga failed to provide further details on how they intend to reduce shadow banking practices.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/01072013/
FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-01 04:59 GMT | GBP/USD stalls the decline above 1.5200
2013-07-01 04:50 GMT | Will the big USD rally be sustainable?
2013-07-01 03:36 GMT | AUD/USD breaking above 0.9180
2013-07-01 02:17 GMT | EUR/AUD hovering above 1.4200
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30325 LOW 1.30053 BID 1.30286 ASK 1.30289 CHANGE 0.16% TIME 08 : 40:42
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Without tier one macroeconomic news announcement neutral mode remains favored. Clearance of next resistance level at 1.3040 (R1) might enable bullish pressure and open route towards to our next targets at 1.3062 (R2) and 1.3084 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside extension might face next supportive barrier at 1.2990 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to interim target at 1.2971 (S2) and any further price regress would then be targeting 1.2951 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3040, 1.3062, 1.3084
Support Levels: 1.2990, 1.2971, 1.2951
----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52265 LOW 1.51953 BID 1.52248 ASK 1.52258 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 40:43
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: Descending structure on GBPUSD suggests possible correction ahead. Break above the resistance at 1.5240 (R1) would clear the way towards to higher target at 1.5271 (R2). Further price appreciation would face then final resistive measure at 1.5303 (R3) Downwards scenario: Next support level lies at 1.5187 (S1). Penetration below it might shift medium-term tone to the negative side. Our intraday targets locates at 1.5159 (S2) and 1.5130 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5240, 1.5271, 1.5303
Support Levels: 1.5187, 1.5159, 1.5130
--------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.54 LOW 99.176 BID 99.389 ASK 99.396 CHANGE 0.25% TIME 08 : 40:44
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: USDJPY clearly determined positive bias on the medium-term perspective. Penetration above the resistive structure at 99.56 (R1) might encourage protective orders execution and drive market price towards to the next resistive means at 99.84 (R2) and 100.11 (R3). Downwards scenario: Price regress below the support level at 99.13 (S1) would increase likelihood of failing towards to the next supportive barrier at 98.85 (S2) and any further correction development would then be targeting final support at 98.58 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 99.56, 99.84, 100.11
Support Levels: 99.13, 98.85, 98.58
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
AUD/USD hits lowest at 0.9158 as RBA retains dovish tone
AUD/USD has been extending its decline post the RBA rate decision, as traders disccount further rate cuts by the central bank going forward. Amid expectations that the rate would be on hold, all the focus was on the wording used by the RBA. Unfortunately for the anxious bulls, there was no surprise on the dovish tone either, with the RBA repeating the old line "the inflation outlook, as currently assessed, may provide some scope for further easing, should that be required to support demand." What is worse, the RBA stated "The Australian dollar has depreciated by around 10 per cent since early April, although it remains at a high level", which was a hint that despite the dramatic fall, the currency is still not low enough, thus market is now pricing the fact that a lower AUD may not be an impediment to reduce rates further should that be necessary.
The lowest level so far has been 0.9156, an area that converges with the sequence of lows seen on July 1 and June 24 on the hourly chart. The level is also the 61.8% fib retrac from the 0.9110 to 0.9250 relief rally. It appears as though some bids are emerging now from lows, with the rate up at 0.9170. On the upside, some offers may be clustered at 0.9175 - lows through last US session - ahead of 0.92 round number and 0.9250 - twin top today.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/02072013/
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-07-02 08:30 GMT | UK. PMI Construction (Jun)
2013-07-02 09:00 GMT | EMU. PMI Construction (Jun)
2013-07-02 14:00 GMT | USA. Factory Orders (May)
2013-07-02 21:45 GMT | USA. FOMC Member Powell Speech
FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-02 04:35 GMT | AUD/USD touches 0.92 handle after RBA
2013-07-02 04:02 GMT | GBP/USD unchanged so far for the week around the 1.52 handle
2013-07-02 02:47 GMT | EUR/JPY testing 130 round bids
2013-07-02 02:46 GMT | NZD/USD, overall bearish risk not eliminated - JPMorgan
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30708 LOW 1.30493 BID 1.30573 ASK 1.30576 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 28:32
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Further buying interest might arise above the resistance at 1.3073 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday target at 1.3095 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect an exposure of 1.3118 (R3). Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 1.3046 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.3025 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum we would suggest final aim at 1.3004 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3073, 1.3095, 1.3118
Support Levels: 1.3046, 1.3025, 1.3004
-----------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52197 LOW 1.51935 BID 1.52082 ASK 1.52091 CHANGE -0.04% TIME 08 : 28:33
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: After dipping lower today we see potential of market strengthening in near-term perspective. Next on tap is seen resistance level at 1.5224 (R1). Break here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5248 (R2) and 1.5276 (R3). Downwards scenario: Prolonged movement below the supportive measure at 1.5183 (S1) is required to activate downtrend expansion. Next aim on the way would be mark at 1.5155 (S2) and then final target could be met at 1.5128 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5224, 1.5248, 1.5276
Support Levels: 1.5183, 1.5155, 1.5128
------------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.75 LOW 99.51 BID 99.712 ASK 99.717 CHANGE 0.04% TIME 08 : 28:33
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Bearish
Upwards scenario: While both moving averages are pointing up, medium-term technical outlook would be positive. Appreciation above the resistance at 99.90 (R1) would likely create bullish momentum and enable next intraday targets at 100.18 (R2) and 100.45 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, depreciation below the technically important support level at 99.47 (S1) would allow further market decline on the short-term perspective. Possible targets lies at 99.18 (S2) and 98.90 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 99.90, 100.18, 100.45
Support Levels: 99.47, 99.18, 98.90
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
With 2 more days to go before the pivotal U.S. non-farm payrolls report, the dollar extended its gains against all of the major currencies. Milestones were reached in some pairs while others broke key levels. The sustainability of the dollar's rally has been nothing short of impressive but it should not surprise investors since the strongest moves in the FX market are the ones supported by fundamental drivers. In this case the Federal Reserve is getting ready to reduce the amount of stimulus that it provides to the economy and investors are just looking for economic data to confirm that the economy is ready for tapering. The dollar faces its first test today with a number of U.S. economic reports on the calendar that will help shape expectations for Friday's release. The day starts off with a layoff report from Challenger Grey & Christmas that will be followed by the ADP Employment Change, jobless claims and most importantly, the ISM non-manufacturing index. Earlier this week we learned that the manufacturing sector lost jobs for the first time since 2009 and now the question is whether the service sector suffered the same fate. We don't think that it did because otherwise the Fed would not have lowered its unemployment rate forecasts but there's always the risk the data could surprise to the downside. Layoffs are expected to decline and most likely ADP will report an increase in U.S. payrolls.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/03072013/
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-07-03 08:28 GMT | UK. Markit Services PMI (Jun)
2013-07-03 12:15 GMT | USA. ADP Employment Change (Jun)
2013-07-03 12:30 GMT | USA. Trade Balance (May)
2013-07-03 14:00 GMT | USA. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-03 04:42 GMT | EUR/USD depressed below 1.30, U.S
2013-07-03 03:47 GMT | EUR/JPY unchanged in the Asia-Pacific after lots of noise
2013-07-03 03:29 GMT | GBP/JPY rises to 151.50 after bullish reversal intraday
2013-07-03 03:20 GMT | AUD/JPY dumped below 92 as RBA Stevens speak
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29834 LOW 1.29618 BID 1.29628 ASK 1.29633 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08 : 39:59
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance at 1.2989 (R1) remains in near-term focus, climb above this level might open way for a recovery action towards to next interim target at 1.3013 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistive measure at 1.3038 (R3) Downwards scenario: Medium-term descending structure might get more stimulus if the price manages to overcome next support level at 1.2954 (S1). Clearance here would suggest initial targets at 1.2923 (S2) and 1.2910 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2989, 1.3013, 1.3038
Support Levels: 1.2954, 1.2923, 1.2910
------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51631 LOW 1.51428 BID 1.51433 ASK 1.51442 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 08 : 40:00
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Market sentiment is negative according to the technical indicators. Though any prolonged movement above the resistive measure at 1.5181 (R1) would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5209 (R2) and 1.5237 (R3). Downwards scenario: Depreciation below the support level at 1.5133 (S1) would suggest next intraday target at 1.5107 (S2) and any further weakening would then be limited to final support level at 1.5080 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5181, 1.5209, 1.5237
Support Levels: 1.5133, 1.5107, 1.5080
-------------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 100.855 LOW 100.443 BID 100.672 ASK 100.675 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08 : 40:00
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: On the upside resistive structure at 100.87 (R1) prevents further gains. Clearance here is required to open route towards to next target at 101.12 (R2) and then final target could be triggered at 101.38 (R3). Downwards scenario: Though, possibility of correction is high. Devaluation below the support at 100.42 (S1) would initiate bearish pressure. On the way our next interim support at 100.16 (S2) en route to final target at 99.91 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 100.87, 101.12, 101.38
Support Levels: 100.42, 100.16, 99.91
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
Since the last ECB meeting, we have seen more improvements than deterioration in the Eurozone economy. In Germany specifically, consumer spending has been healthy, unemployment rolls have declined, leading to an improvement in business and investor confidence. However the strength was not without areas of weakness. Businesses and investors grew more optimistic about future economic activity but more grim about current activity. Considering that the current performance of the economy is what really matters, the ECB may look beyond everyone's hope for improvement. Also stronger service sector activity in the region's largest economy was offset by a deeper contraction in manufacturing. So as you can see the recovery in the Eurozone is uneven and when combined with a 5% sell-off in the DAX, since the last meeting the ECB has very little to be optimistic about.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/04072013/
FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-04 05:22 GMT | EUR/USD lingers at 1.30, awaits the ECB
2013-07-04 04:59 GMT | NZD/USD flat for the session unable to overcome the 0.78 handle
2013-07-04 04:17 GMT | GBP/USD retraces into 1.5250 post bullish engulfing day
2013-07-04 03:23 GMT | AUD/USD jumps on RBA Lowe's comments
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30233 LOW 1.29875 BID 1.29937 ASK 1.29943 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08 : 23:05
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Appreciation above the resistance at 1.3015 (R1) might commence new step of the ascending structure. Our intraday targets today are placed at 1.3035 (R2) and 1.3053 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of the downtrend development is seen below the support level at 1.2984 (S1). Weakening below this mark might clear the way towards to immediate supports at 1.2965 (S2) and 1.2945 (S3). ECB interest rate announcement is a key factor today.
Resistance Levels: 1.3015, 1.3035, 1.3053
Support Levels: 1.2984, 1.2965, 1.2945
--------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52831 LOW 1.52513 BID 1.52575 ASK 1.52583 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08 : 23:06
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Market remains relatively stable prior BOE interest rate decision, though clearance of next resistance level at 1.5293 (R1) might initiates bullish pressure. Above the local high locates our resistive means at 1.5316 (R2) and 1.5341 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our focus is shifted to the next support level at 1.5238 (S1). Loss here is required to push the price towards to our next interim targets at 1.5213 (S2) en route towards to final support at 1.5186 (S3)
Resistance Levels: 1.5293, 1.5316, 1.5341
Support Levels: 1.5238, 1.5213, 1.5186
---------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 100.091 LOW 99.692 BID 99.847 ASK 99.849 CHANGE -0.04% TIME 08 : 23:07
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Possibility of price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 100.15 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest our interim target at 100.42 (R2) and then mark at 100.70 (R3) acts as last resistive measure for today. Downwards scenario: Negative developments might be settled below the important support level at 99.63 (S1). Any price action below it would then be targeting support at 99.36 (S2) and final target could be exposed at 99.09 (S3) mark.
Resistance Levels: 100.15, 100.42, 100.70
Support Levels: 99.63, 99.36, 99.09
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
Big moves are happening in the FX market yesterday. The euro and British pound dropped to 5 week lows against the U.S. dollar, taking out key levels in the process. The absence of U.S. traders most likely compounded the volatility in currencies. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged but Mario Draghi and Mark Carney made it clear that both central banks have a bias to ease. The dovish comments from European central bankers were motivated by the recent volatility in interest rates and a desire to set themselves apart from the Federal Reserve who is on a path to reduce stimulus. The ECB and the BoE wants everyone to know that they are still prepared to increase stimulus if the volatility in the bond markets persist or their economies weaken. In the Eurozone in particular, the EUR/USD dropped through 1.30 and 1.29. The currency started to fall as soon as Draghi said that policy will remains accommodative as long as needed, there are downside risks to their economic outlook and rates will stay low for an extended period of time. The sell-off gained momentum when the central bank took the unprecedented step of forward guidance. The ECB said there is no exit in sight, they are keeping rates low for an extended period of time, their decision will be data dependent and they are keeping an open mind on negative deposit rates. Draghi also reminded everyone that the central bank is "technically ready" for negative rates. They had an extensive discussion about the possibility of a rate cut and unanimously decided that the guidance was needed which included saying that 50bp is not the lower bound. The central bank is screaming their bias to ease from the top of the mountain - they don't want to leave any room for ambiguity because the risk could be a further rise in yields. Having dropped below 1.29, the next support for the EUR/USD should be at 1.28.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/05072013/
EURUSD
HIGH 1.29166 LOW 1.28878 BID 1.28983 ASK 1.28988 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08 : 24:40
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: The possibility of an upside price progress is seen above the resistance level at 1.2931 (R1). Evaluation above this mark might initiate bullish pressure and expose medium-term interim targets at 1.2952 (R2) and 1.2974 (R3). Downwards scenario: We placed our support level right above the yesterday low at 1.2881 (S1). Clearance here is required to open way towards to our interim target at 1.2862 (S2) and then final aim locates at 1.2842 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2931, 1.2952, 1.2974
Support Levels: 1.2881, 1.2862, 1.2842
-------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.50777 LOW 1.50268 BID 1.50465 ASK 1.50478 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08 : 24:41
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Nonfarm Payrolls announcement might change overall technical structure. We see potential to overcome our next resistive barrier at 1.5090 (R1). Any prolonged movement above it would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5120 (R2) and 1.5151 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of price depreciation is seen below the support level at 1.5024 (S1). A fall below it might prolong medium-term weakness towards to next support at 1.4992 (S2) and any further market decline would then be targeting final support at 1.4959 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5090, 1.5120, 1.5151
Support Levels: 1.5024, 1.4992, 1.4959
--------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 100.458 LOW 99.999 BID 100.257 ASK 100.261 CHANGE 0.22% TIME 08 : 24:42
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Neutral tone dominates on the hourly chart frame. Local high offers an important resistive structure at 100.45 (R1). Any penetration above that level would suggest next targets at 100.68 (R2) and 100.90 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside expansion is limited to the next support level at 100.15 (S1). Break here is required to open way towards to initial targets at 99.92 (S2) and 99.70 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 100.45, 100.68, 100.90
Support Levels: 100.15, 99.92, 99.70
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
ECB members had heated clash over last rate decision
ECB Governing Council members had a confrontational approach over interest rates at their latest board meeting on Thursday, according to German weekly Der Spiegel, citing no sources, the MNI newswire reports. Der Spiegel claims to have obtained insights over the dovish views from ECB chief economist Peter Praet, who proposed to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 bp in the last meeting, an action that ECB President Mario Draghi would have supported.
However, as MNI reports, "seven board members, mainly from northern European member states, were arguing sharply against a rate cut last week, the magazine reported." Der Spiegel reports German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot as well as ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen, as the most notoriously opposed to it. As is well known, the final decision taken by the board was to unanimously keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5% while providing forward guidance on low rates. Draghi's said that "broad-based weakness in the real economy and subdued monetary dynamics" will keep rates at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/08072013/
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
24h | All. Eurogroup Meeting
2013-07-08 13:30 GMT | EMU. ECB President Draghi's Speech
2013-07-08 14:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey (Q2)
2013-07-08 19:00 GMT | USA. Consumer Credit Change
FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-08 04:59 GMT | Calls to buy USD all over; time to be sellers?
2013-07-08 04:26 GMT | GBP/USD strongly capped below 1.4900
2013-07-08 03:40 GMT | Buy AUD/NZD targeting 1.2130/70 - Societe Generale
2013-07-08 03:38 GMT | AUD/CAD depressed below 0.96 round
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.28319 LOW 1.28106 BID 1.28169 ASK 1.28173 CHANGE -0.11% TIME 08 : 30:00
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Market players may prefer to stay neutral today during limited tier one macroeconomic data flow, though a break of our resistance at 1.2852 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.2879 (R2) and 1.2905 (R3). Downwards scenario: Friday low offers a key support barrier at 1.2805 (S1). Only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to next targets at 1.2781 (S2) and 1.2757 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.2852, 1.2879, 1.2905
Support Levels: 1.2805, 1.2781, 1.2757
----------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.48824 LOW 1.48582 BID 1.48765 ASK 1.48774 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 30:01
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 1.4923 (R1). Appreciation above it might lead would enable corrective phase, targeting resistive measures at 1.4962 (R2) and 1.4999 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, if the pair accelerates on the downside and manage to break our next support level at 1.4853 (S1), it is likely to trigger our next support level at 1.4818 (S2) and 1.4782 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 1.4923, 1.4962, 1.4999
Support Levels: 1.4853, 1.4818, 1.4782
-----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 101.531 LOW 101.06 BID 101.095 ASK 101.100 CHANGE -0.08% TIME 08:30:02
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Uptrend evolvement remains in power. Further appreciation above the resistive barrier at 101.53 (R1) is liable to next intraday targets at 101.81 (R2) and 102.09 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible retracement action might get more stimulus below the support level at 100.87 (S1). Loss here would suggest next intraday target at 100.58 (S2) and any weakening below it would then face final support at 100.28 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 101.53, 101.81, 102.09
Support Levels: 100.87, 100.58, 100.28
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
Troika officials struck a deal with Greece this Monday, allowing the debt-laden country to receive its next tranche of funds, totalling The money, totaling 6.8bn euros ($8.7bn). The troika of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will be responsible to make the funds available end of the month. Eurozone finance ministers indicated earlier today that 2.5bn euros would come from the eurozone rescue fund and 1.5bn euros, while the European Central Bank will contribute with another 1.5bn euros. It is thought that an additional 500m euros from both the EZ rescue fund and the ECB will be transferred in October. The IMF will add the remaining 1.8bn euros.
The loans are subject to Greece showing a committal approach towards the country's fiscal path, with the Troika demanding further cuts and a faster implementation of its reform programme, one that has brought the country to its knees. Despite so, the Troika continues to underline the slow progress seen so far, as the country continues to struggle through an era of depression.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/09072013/
FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-09 04:52 GMT | GBP/USD stalls the recovery below 1.4950
2013-07-09 04:50 GMT | EUR/USD aiming at 2nd daily gain
2013-07-09 03:09 GMT | NZD/USD back around 0.78 post-China CPI
2013-07-09 03:02 GMT | AUD/JPY setting stage for a 92.50 breakout?
-----------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.28711 LOW 1.2846 BID 1.28677 ASK 1.28683 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 33:00
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum on the upside recently, turning short-term bias to the positive side. Next resistive structure on the way lies at 1.2892 (R1), break here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.2909 (R2) and 1.2926 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to establish positive bias today would shift our focus to the next support level at 1.2844 (S1). Clearance here would open way towards to our initial targets at 1.2826 (S2) and 1.2806 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2892, 1.2909, 1.2926
Support Levels: 1.2844, 1.2826, 1.2806
--------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.4953 LOW 1.49199 BID 1.49434 ASK 1.49442 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08 : 33:01
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Yesterday high offers a key resistive measure at 1.4968 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.4999 (R2) and 1.5029 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 1.4918 (S1). Below here we see potential for the price acceleration towards to next targets at 1.4884 (S2) and 1.4851 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.4968, 1.4999, 1.5029
Support Levels: 1.4918, 1.4884, 1.4851
----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 101.243 LOW 100.768 BID 101.147 ASK 101.151 CHANGE 0.19% TIME 08 : 33:02
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating if the pair approaches 101.41 (R1) price level. Break here would suggest next interim target at 101.70 (R2) and If the price keeps its momentum we expect an exposure of 101.97 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, break below the support at 100.76 (S1) is required to enable further market decline. Our next supportive measures locates at 100.49 (S2) and 100.21 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 101.41, 101.70, 101.97
Support Levels: 100.76, 100.49, 100.21
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
Ratings Agency Standard & Poor's decided to downgrade Italy on Tuesday, cutting the rating to BBB from BBB+. According to S&P, this action reflects their view of the effects of further weakening growth on Italy's economic structure and resilience, and its impaired monetary transmission mechanism. S&P also left their outlook at negative, meaning there is at least one-in-three chance that the rating could be lowered again in 2013 or 2014.
The highlights today will be the FOMC Minutes and Bernanke’s Speech and until then I don’t see an awful lot to move things around. The 4 hour charts are showing some minor bullish divergence and we could see the odd bounce but the dailies continue to point lower and I suspect that the low 1.2700 area will soon be tested. In the meantime leave room for bounces as the 4 hour charts unwind. We will be adding to our shorts if we see a bounce into the 1.2850/1.2900 in the coming session. German CPI, US FOMC Minutes, Wholesale Inventories, Bernanke Speech Economic data highlights will include: German CPI, US FOMC Minutes, Wholesale Inventories, Bernanke Speech
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/10072013/
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.27868 LOW 1.27648 BID 1.27823 ASK 1.27828 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 13:47
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD stabilized on the hourly chart however appreciation above the next resistance at 1.2805 (R1) might be a good catalyst for a recovery action towards to next targets at 1.2833 (R2) and 1.2862 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the next support level at 1.2754 (S1), only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to next targets at 1.2727 (S2) and 1.2699 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.2805, 1.2833, 1.2862
Support Levels: 1.2754, 1.2727, 1.2699
---------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.48973 LOW 1.48451 BID 1.48948 ASK 1.48958 CHANGE 0.2% TIME 08 : 13:48
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Current price setup might suggest volatility increase in near term perspective. If the price get acceleration on the upside and manages to surpass our resistive measure at 1.4926 (R1), we would suggest next targets at 1.4972 (R2) and 1.5018 (R3). Downwards scenario: Yesterday session low provides an important supportive mark at 1.4813 (S1). Any penetration below this level would suggest next targets at 1.4767 (S2) and 1.4722 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.4926, 1.4972, 1.5018
Support Levels: 1.4813, 1.4767, 1.4722
---------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 101.216 LOW 100.374 BID 100.405 ASK 100.410 CHANGE -0.74% TIME 08 : 13:49
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Upside formation is limited now to the next resistive barrier at 100.76 (R1). Clearance here is required to provide a space for a move towards to next target at 101.02 (R2) and then final aim could be found at 101.29 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further downtrend formation might get acceleration below the support level at 100.15 (S1). Loss here would suggest next intraday target at 99.87 (S2) and any weakening below it would then be limited to final support at 99.63 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 100.76, 101.02, 101.29
Support Levels: 100.15, 99.87, 99.63
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
ECB Monthly Report: Interest rates could be reduced further
The ECB signalized in its July Monthly Report that interest rates could be reduced further, should the price stability outlook warrant it. The recently introduced forward guidance was also included: “The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.” There was also some clarification of its time horizon: “The extended period of time over which the Governing Council currently expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels is a flexible horizon which does not pre-specify an end-date but is conditional on the Governing Council’s assessment of the economic fundamentals that determine underlying inflation."
Furthermore, the Council pointed to recent improvements in Eurozone sentiment indicators which suggest a gradual recovery of the economy later this year and in 2014. To support it, the ECB is prepared to maintain the accomodative monetary policy for as long as necessary. The accomodative policy should prop up domestic demand while the recovery in global demand should boost export growth in the area. Additionally, the Governing Council suggested that “the overall improvements in financial markets seen since last summer should work their way through to the real economy, as should the progress made in fiscal consolidation.”
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/12072013/
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-07-12 09:00 GMT | EMU. Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)
2013-07-12 12:30 GMT | USA. Producer Price Index (YoY)
2013-07-12 13:55 GMT | USA. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment
2013-07-12 17:00 GMT | USA. Fed's Bullard speech
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31002 LOW 1.30728 BID 1.30752 ASK 1.30756 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08 : 26:43
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Fractals level at 1.3124 (R1) offers a key resistive measure on the downside. Break here is required to enable bearish pressure and validate next target at 1.3167 (R2). Final support for today locates at 1.3208 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays above the moving averages our medium-term outlook would be positive. Though extension lower the 1.3028 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to initial supports at 1.2988 (S2) and 1.2945 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3124, 1.3167, 1.3208
Support Levels: 1.3028, 1.2988, 1.2945
------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.5189 LOW 1.51666 BID 1.51702 ASK 1.51710 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 26:44
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however appreciation above the resistive structure at 1.5222 (R1) might trigger bullish pressure and drive market price towards to next targets at 1.5250 (R2) and 1.5278 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next supportive mark locates at 1.5145 (S1). Depreciation below it might shift short-term tendency to the bearish side and validate our next targets at 1.5117 (S2) and 1.5088 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5222, 1.5250, 1.5278
Support Levels: 1.5145, 1.5117, 1.5088
-------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.321 LOW 98.675 BID 99.048 ASK 99.048 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08 : 26:45
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: USDJPY trapped to the consolidation phase after the initial downtrend formation. Break of resistive level at 99.36 (R1) is required to enable recovery action. Our intraday targets are placed at 99.68 (R2) and 99.98 (R3). Downwards scenario: Though medium-term perspective remains negative for US Dollar. Next on tap is seen support level at 98.67 (S1), clearance here is required to enable lower targets at 98.36 (S2) and 98.06 (S3)
Resistance Levels: 99.36, 99.68, 99.98
Support Levels: 98.67, 98.36, 98.06
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
Fitch Ratings has downgraded France to AA+ from AAA on Friday, keeping a stable outlook on the country's debt. Fitch, which joins S&P and Moody's in removing the country's AAA rating, cited the high level of the French government indebtedness as one of the main reasons of the downgrade. Fitch expects France's general government debt to peak at 96% of GDP in 2014 and decline only gradually over the long term, remaining at 92% in 2017. "The only 'AAA' country with a higher debt ratio is the U.S. (AAA/negative), which has exceptional financing flexibility and debt tolerance afforded by the preeminent global reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar," Fitch said in a statement.
Standard & Poor's has affirmed on Friday Germany's top triple-A sovereign credit rating, with a stable outlook. The rating agency justified its decision saying that “Germany has a highly diversified and competitive economy with a demonstrated ability to absorb large economic and financial shocks.” As far as the outlook on the long-term rating is concerned, S&P's decision to keep it 'stable' reflects their view that: “Germany's public finances and strong external balance sheet will continue to withstand potential financial and economic shocks.”
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/15072013/
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-07-15 07:15 GMT | Switzerland. Producer and Import Prices (YoY)
2013-07-15 12:00 GMT | USA. Fed's Tarullo speech
2013-07-15 12:30 GMT | USA. Retail Sales (MoM)
2013-07-15 22:45 GMT | New Zeland. Consumer Price Index (YoY)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-15 04:56 GMT | GBP/USD treading water above 1.5100
2013-07-15 03:49 GMT | AUD/USD exposed to 0.80/0.85 fall - RBS
2013-07-15 03:35 GMT | EUR/USD, 1.2930-80 key to technical outlook - BBH
2013-07-15 02:39 GMT | USD/JPY flat above 99.00 with Tokyo closed
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3079 LOW 1.30513 BID 1.30773 ASK 1.30773 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08:00:33
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: With limited economic data flow today we expect further neutral tone development. However, price strengthening is possible above the next resistance level at 1.3092 (R1). Our interim target holds at 1.3124 (R2) en route to our final aim for today at 1.3157 (R3). Downwards scenario: Current price pattern suggests bearish potential if the pair manages to overcome next support level at 1.3044 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 1.3008 (S2) and 1.2974 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 1.3092, 1.3124, 1.3157
Support Levels: 1.3044, 1.3008, 1.2974
----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51287 LOW 1.5098 BID 1.51257 ASK 1.51268 CHANGE 0.13% TIME 08:00:33
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistive barrier at 1.5141 (R1). Break here is required to prolong upside pressure and trigger our intraday targets at 1.5173(R2) and 1.5203 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the next resistance level our technical outlook would be negative. Next on tap is support level at 1.5088 (S1). Penetration below this mark would suggest next targets at 1.5059 (S2) and 1.5028 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5141, 1.5173, 1.5203
Support Levels: 1.5088, 1.5059, 1.5028
----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.383 LOW 99.074 BID 99.271 ASK 99.272 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08:00:34
Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 99.46 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 99.68 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 99.90 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, loss of our support level at 99.03 (S1) would open road for a market decline towards to our next target at 98.83 (S2). Any further price weakening would then be limited to final support for today at 98.61 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 99.46, 99.68, 99.90
Support Levels: 99.03, 98.83, 98.61
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
Dovish ECB, soft US retail sales balance each other out. Waiting on Bernanke – again!
Dovish talk from the ECB undermined the Euro before the softer than expected US Retail Sales turned things around, sending the US dollar slightly lower. Markets are likely to be on hold ahead of Bernanke’s testimony to Congress although equities and commodities both looks solid in the short term. A mix of data out of the EU and the US could make it a bit choppy later in the day. Before then, the RBA Minutes will be Asia’s focus.
The Euro has had a choppy but mostly uninteresting session, hanging close to 1.3000 as the northern hemisphere summer doldrums look to be well upon us. Early dovish comments from the ECB’s Hansson, indicating that there is room to cut rates further and that negative interest rates should not be ruled out helped push the Euro lower early in the session, before a bit of a turnaround following the softer than expected US retail Sales, that saw the dollar come under some pressure of its own. Fitch downgraded the EFSF – European Financial Stability Facility- to AA+ from AAA, which, following on from the recent France downgrade, had precisely no effect on the Euro at all.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/16072013/
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
N/A | UK. BOE Inflation Letter
2013-07-16 08:30 GMT | UK. Consumer Price Index (YoY)
2013-07-16 09:00 GMT | EMU. Consumer Price Index (YoY
2013-07-16 12:30 GMT | USA. Consumer Price Index (YoY)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-16 04:46 GMT | GBP/USD stable above 1.51 ahead of UK&US CPI's
2013-07-16 04:25 GMT | EUR/USD pressing against 1.3080
2013-07-16 03:10 GMT | NZD/USD seen at 0.78 year end - BNZ
2013-07-16 02:07 GMT | AUD/USD targets 0.9188, dip buyers on the rise
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30758 LOW 1.30527 BID 1.30716 ASK 1.30722 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08 : 21:26
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Next barrier on the upside lie at 1.3092 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable our initial target at 1.3132 (R2) and any further gains would then be limited to last resistive structure at 1.3171 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, clearance of our support at 1.3049 (S1) is required to determine negative intraday bias and enable lower target at 1.3010 (S2) and then any further market depreciation would suggest final support at 1.2969 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3092, 1.3132, 1.3171
Support Levels: 1.3049, 1.3010, 1.2969
--------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51167 LOW 1.50909 BID 1.51066 ASK 1.51078 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08 : 21:27
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Neutral channel formation remains favored pattern on the hourly chart frame. Possible clearance of our next resistive barrier at 1.5132 (R1) would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5173 (R2) and 1.5216 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Possible downside expansion is protected by support level at 1.5086 (S1), break here would put bullish oriented traders on hold. Marks at 1.5046 (S2) and 1.5004 (S3) acts as our initial targets today.
Resistance Levels: 1.5132, 1.5173, 1.5216
Support Levels: 1.5086, 1.5046, 1.5004
-------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 100.068 LOW 99.647 BID 99.805 ASK 99.807 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 21:27
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: USDJPY resumed its consolidation phase yesterday and we see potential for further appreciation towards to our targets at 100.33 (R2) and 100.60 (R3) if the price manages to overcome key resistance measure at 100.06 (R1). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 99.62 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 99.35 (S2) and 99.06 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 100.06, 100.33, 100.60
Support Levels: 99.62, 99.35, 99.06
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
Fed's Bernanke: Asset purchases not 'on a preset course'
According to the prepared text of Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech, to be delivered later today during his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, the pace of the Federal Reserve's bond purchases is not 'on a preset course', as it depends on the current economic and financial situation. The Fed head assured that signs of recovery are visible in the US labor market, but that “the jobs situation is far from satisfactory, as the unemployment rate remains well above its longer-run normal level.” He also pointed out that inflation is still below the Fed's 2% target. That is why “a highly accommodative monetary policy will remain appropriate for the foreseeable future.”
As far as QE is concerned, Bernanke stressed that the decision on when the tapering should begin depends on the Fed's assessment of the US economic outlook. Should economic data improve earlier than forecasted and inflation rise towards the objective, a reduction could be carried out sooner. Otherwise, “the current pace of purchases could be maintained for longer.” According to Rob Carnell from ING: ”This speech neither contradicts nor supports the notion that the taper begins in September. The taper might begin then. But as we have written elsewhere, there are quite good reasons why it may occur somewhat later. Not that it really matters all that much anyway – given that the Fed funds decision is one that will be taken independently from QE.”
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/18072013/
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-07-18 08:30 GMT | UK Retail Sales (YoY)
2013-07-18 12:30 GMT | US Initial Jobless Claims
2013-07-18 14:00 GMT | US Fed's Bernanke Speech
2013-07-18 23:50 GMT | Japan. Foreign bond investment
FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-18 04:52 GMT | GBP/USD breaks below 1.52 ahead of UK retail sales
2013-07-18 04:31 GMT | USD/JPY above 100 again ahead of Sunday's elections
2013-07-18 04:20 GMT | EUR/USD breaks 1.32, needs to clear 1.3180
2013-07-18 04:04 GMT | AUD/USD trips stop losses below 0.9170
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31271 LOW 1.3091 BID 1.30962 ASK 1.30968 CHANGE -0.22% TIME 08 : 24:12
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD stabilized on the hourly timeframe. Potential to move higher is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3147 (R1). Loss here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3179 (R2) and 1.3210 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside extension might face next supportive barrier at 1.3081 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to interim target at 1.3050 (S2) and any further price regress would then be targeting 1.3019 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3147, 1.3179, 1.3210
Support Levels: 1.3081, 1.3050, 1.3019
--------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52232 LOW 1.51728 BID 1.51789 ASK 1.51799 CHANGE -0.21% TIME 08 : 24:12
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistance level at 1.5223 (R1), keeping the ascending structure intact. The break here is required for the price appreciation towards to next target at 1.5252 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting to 1.5281 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside next supportive bastion lies at 1.5152 (S1). Prolonged movement below it might then expose our intraday targets at 1.5124 (S2) and 1.5095 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5223, 1.5252, 1.5281
Support Levels: 1.5152, 1.5124, 1.5095
------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 100.18 LOW 99.463 BID 100.085 ASK 100.088 CHANGE 0.53% TIME 08 : 24:13
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Our next resistance level is placed at 100.22 (R1). Clearance here is required to resume uptrend structure towards to next target at 100.41 (R2) and any further price appreciation would then be limited to 100.61 (R3) mark. Downwards scenario: While instrument trades above the moving averages, our short-term bias would stay positive though penetration below the support level at 99.84 (S1) might open way towards to lower targets at 99.64 (S2) and 99.44 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 100.22, 100.41, 100.61
Support Levels: 99.84, 99.64, 99.44
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
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