Posted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 11:45 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 08 2013
ECB's Draghi sees the Eurozone recovering in second half of the year
The ECB Governing Council decided to keep the main interest rate unchanged at 0.75% at their December monetary policy meeting. Speaking at the press conference following the meeting ECB head Mario Draghi commented on the considerations underlying the decision. The president suggested that inflation should fall below 2% in the coming months and assured that inflationary pressures should remain contained. He said that economic growth would remain weak in the “early part” of 2013 and recover very gradually, along with the improving situation on financial markets. The recovery would be supported by the ECB's accomodative monetary policy stance, better external demand and easier financial market conditions.
Mario Draghi commented on the the liquidity situation of EU banks, which recently repaid €140.6 billion of the €489.2 billion obtained through LTROs, which reflects the improvement in financial market confidence. He nevertheless urged EU officials to carry on with the reduction of “both fiscal and structural imbalances and proceed with financial sector restructuring measures” which should boost confidence further. When asked about the recent appreciation of the shared currency and whether it could hurt recovery, the ECB chief answered that it could be an indication that confidence in the euro begun improving. He added that the central bank would continue to closely monitor money market developments.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/08022013/
2013-02-08 05:17 GMT | Where have all EUR/USD bulls gone?
2013-02-08 04:44 GMT | Long-running EUR/CHF uptrend unlikely - HSBC
2013-02-08 03:25 GMT | Kiwi at 0.87 by year end - BNZ
2013-02-08 01:49 GMT | GBP/JPY off fresh 3-year highs below 148.00
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.34161 LOW 1.33817 BID 1.33980 ASK 1.33987 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 01:14
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Potential is seen for break above the resistance at 1.3420 (R1) today and develop some recovery from the initial downtrend formation. In such scenario we would suggest next target at 1.3447 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.3474 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument has comfortably ranged and any further downside extension is protected now by the key support at 1.3371 (S1). Loss here is required to enable our initial targets at 1.3346 (S2) and 1.3319 (S3)
Resistance Levels: 1.3420, 1.3447, 1.3474
Support Levels: 1.3371, 1.3346, 1.3319
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GBPUSD
HIGH 1.57372 LOW 1.57046 BID 1.57234 ASK 1.57246 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 01:15
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bullish oriented traders. Fresh high formed today offers next resistance level at 1.5738 (R1). In case of market appreciation above that level our focus would then be shifted to the higher targets at 1.5754 (R2) and 1.5770 (R3). Downwards scenario: We do expect some pull-backs on the downside below our next support level at 1.5715 (S1). Short-term momentum on the negative side might open the way towards to immediate supports at 1.5699 (S2) and 1.5681 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5738, 1.5754, 1.5770
Support Levels: 1.5715, 1.5699, 1.5681
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USDJPY :
HIGH 93.733 LOW 93.195 BID 93.239 ASK 93.244 CHANGE -0.42% TIME 08 : 01:16
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday. Possible price strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 93.58 (R1). Next interim target holds at 93.81 (R2) en route toward to our major aim at 94.05 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support at 93.17 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective and start forming retracement formation. As a result our supportive meant at 92.93 (S2) and 92.69 (S3) might be triggered.
Resistance Levels: 93.58, 93.81, 94.05
Support Levels: 93.17, 92.93, 92.69
Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 11:29 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 12 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 12 2013
S&P keeps Ireland rating at BBB+; Outlook revised up to stable from negative
The Standard and Poor’s rating services has maintained its Ireland rating at BBB+ but has revised upward the Irish outlook from negative to stable on the back of promissory notes exchange. Earlier on the day, BUBA’s J.Weidmann took ECB president Mario Draghi’s relay and is ‘verbally’ pushing the cross to the proximity of 1.3430 in the European evening. Weidmann commented that the euro would not be overvalued at current levels, and he emphasized than a lower exchange rate could derail in higher inflation.
For the London session ahead focus will be centered at UK CPI figures at 09:30 GMT, along with tentative BoE inflation letter, once RICS house price balance data was published early in Asia today showing a decline of -4%, slightly worse than previous at -1%, but still in an uptrend since late 2010. FTSE futures are pointing for a lower open, while Hong-Kong, Singapore and mainland China kept on closed over holidays.
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-february-12-2013/
Forex Economic Calendar
N/A | United Kingdom. BOE Inflation Letter
2013-02-12 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-12 15:30 GMT | E.M.U. ECB President Draghi’s Speech
2013-02-12 19:00 GMT | United States. Monthly Budget Statement (Jan)
Forex News
2013-02-12 05:46 GMT | USD/JPY on fresh 2.5 year high; North Korea conducts nuclear test
2013-02-12 05:42 GMT | GBP/USD slips to previous 5-month lows area, below 1.5650
2013-02-12 05:18 GMT | EUR/USD, 1.3250 or 1.35 firm candidates on next move
2013-02-12 05:08 GMT | Moody’s cuts outlook on advanced economies
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: The high of the today offer initial resistance level at 1.3411 (R1). Penetration above that level might trigger recovery action and expose our resistive mean at 1.3436 (R2) en route towards to final target at 1.3462 (R3). Downwards scenario: Bearish pressure would stay in power while price is quoted below the both moving averages. Clearance of our next support at 1.3361 (S1) might enable downside forces and drive market price towards to initial targets at 1.3334 (S2) and 1.3307 (S3) in perspective.
Resistance Levels: 1.3411, 1.3436, 1.3462
Support Levels: 1.3361, 1.3334, 1.3307
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
Upwards scenario: Cable is consolidating after the losses provided yesterday. A break above the resistance at 1.5670 (R1) would allow to establish some pull pack formation. Our upside targets today locates at 1.5687 (R2) and 1.5704 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next challenging supportive barrier locates at 1.5640 (S1). Breakthrough of this level would open way for stronger downside expansion and could possibly trigger our initial targets at 1.5623 (S2) and 1.5605 (R3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.5670, 1.5687, 1.5704
Support Levels: 1.5640, 1.5623, 1.5605
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: Local high, formed yesterday is the key point for further uptrend formation on the medium-term perspective. However even surpass of our next resistance at 94.21 (R1) might be sufficient to establish positive bias, targeting 94.46 (R2) and 94.72 (R3). Downwards scenario: Market decline below the support level at 93.75 (S1) might change short-term technical picture and shift market sentiment to the bearish side. In such scenario we expect next targets to be exposed at 93.51 (S2) and 93.26 (S3)
Resistance Levels: 94.21, 94.46, 94.72
Support Levels: 93.75, 93.51, 93.26
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2013 11:13 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 13 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 13 2013
Obama addresses congress at the SOTU speech
In the State of the Union speech, President Barack Obama addressed the Congress, with the main highlights found below. The text was obtained from Obama’s prepared full text speech and released moments before he came on stage. Obama first emphasized that the generation’s task is to build a strong middle class, which should be achieved through the government working ‘on behalf of the many’ not few. Referring to the soaring deficit, he said proposals will not increase deficit by ‘single dime’, with a government that acts smarter not bigger. Obama said ‘deficit reduction alone is not an economic plan.’
He ordered DHS to develop a real-time cybersecurity response. Obama also called for $1 Bln investment to create 15 manufacturing institutes; calls for overhauling corp tax code. Obama proposed ‘off-shoring tax’ to set minimum on offshore earnings, while also calling for a minimum wage to increase to $9/hour. With regards to the recent nuclear test conducted by North Korea, Obama said US to lead the world in taking firm action in response to North Korean threats, considering to strengthen US missile defense. The President of the US also unveiled plans to strengthen bilateral transatlantic trade deals with the European Union. Obama said: “Tonight, I am announcing that we will launch talks on a comprehensive Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the European Union – because trade that is free and fair across the Atlantic supports millions of good-paying American jobs.”
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-february-13-2013/
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-13 10:00 GMT | E.M.U Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Dec)
2013-02-13 10:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
2013-02-13 13:30 GMT | United States. US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
2013-02-13 18:00 GMT | United States. 10-Year Note Auction
Forex News
2013-02-13 05:36 GMT | EUR/USD bulls regain control; break of 1.35 clarifies picture
2013-02-13 05:33 GMT | GBP/USD stalls the recovery below 1.5700
2013-02-13 04:38 GMT | USD/JPY break of 93.00 allows further losses
2013-02-13 04:23 GMT | AUD/USD breaks to fresh 5-day highs above 1.0350
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: next hurdle on the upside penetration is seen above the yesterday high at 1.3475 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we expect further acceleration towards to initial targets at 1.3503 (R2) and 1.3532 (R3). Downwards scenario: Market decline below the next supportive means at 1.3433 (S1) might trigger bearish pressure and enable lower target at 1.3407 (S2). Final support for today could be exposed at 1.3381 (R3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 1.3475, 1.3503, 1.3532
Support Levels: 1.3433, 1.3407, 1.3381
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistance level at 1.5688 (R1), keeping the retracement formation intact. The break here is required for the price appreciation towards to next target at 1.5707 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting to 1.5726 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, medium-term tone remains negative and possible depreciation below the support level at 1.5661 (S1) would allow further declines. Our supports levels today lies at 1.5642 (S2) and 1.5623 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5688, 1.5707, 1.5726
Support Levels: 1.5661, 1.5642, 1.5623
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: A negative market tone dominates on the hourly chart frame however further buying interest might arise above the key resistance at 93.35 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday target at 93.57 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect an exposure of 93.79 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today limits recovery attempts for now. Next support level stays right below it at 92.81 (S1). Break here would suggest next target at 92.60 (S2) en route towards to final aim for today at 92.39 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 93.35, 93.57, 93.79
Support Levels: 92.81, 92.60, 92.39
Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 10:42 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 15 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 15 2013
Eurozone tumbles deeper into recession
The preliminary Eurozone GDP numbers for the fourth quarter of 2012, published in the European morning, paint a rather gloomy picture of economic activity in the area: growth declined sharply by 0.6%, which makes it a third straight quarterly fall. GDP in the three largest Eurozone economies shrank more than expected. Germany saw a 0.6% decline, France contracted by 0.3% and Italy by 0.9%. Portuguese GDP plunged by 1.8%, which makes the country the worst performer in the Eurozone. Only Estonia and Slovakia registered growth in the area, but results for Ireland, Greece, Luxembourg, Malta and Slovenia are still pending. ING analyst Peter Vanden Houte comments: “While we expect a stabilisation in the first quarter and a weak recovery from the second quarter onwards, one has to acknowledge that a lot of things still can go wrong. The economic and political outlook in Spain and Italy remains uncertain, while the difficult bail-out of Cyprus could stoke contagion fears. Therefore it is certainly not a time for the ECB to lean back and relax.”
For the London session ahead key UK retail sales data at 09:30 GMT will surely take center stage for Cable traders, as “Consumer spending is the backbone of the economy as well as a key component of GDP,” says BK Asset Management managing director Kathy Lien. Data is expected to come above previous one, and around the +0.5% as consensus, while G20 meetings going on thru the weekend might provide headlines that shake markets either direction.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/15022013/
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-15 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-15 14:00 GMT | United States. Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Dec)
2013-02-15 14:15 GMT | United States. Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan)
2013-02-15 14:55 GMT | United States. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Feb)
Forex News
2013-02-15 06:00 GMT | GBP/USD clings to last support around 1.5500
2013-02-15 05:28 GMT | Selling EUR/USD, still a profitable short term strategy?
2013-02-15 05:23 GMT | USD/JPY finding bids ahead of 92.20
2013-02-15 04:58 GMT | Kiwi strength to stay – ANZ
------------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.33721 LOW 1.33472 BID 1.33524 ASK 1.33532 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 08 : 23:26
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: The recent price acceleration on the upside suggests a possible move higher ahead. Next on tap is resistive barrier at 1.3400 (R1) on the way towards to higher targets at 1.3415 (R2) and 1.3428 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the market fails to stabilize on the positive side, we expect retest of our support level at 1.3373 (S1) in near term perspective. Successful penetration below it would enable initial targets at 1.3358 (S2) and 1.3344 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3400, 1.3415, 1.3428
Support Levels: 1.3373, 1.3358, 1.3344
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.55214 LOW 1.5484 BID 1.55071 ASK 1.55082 CHANGE 0.09% TIME 08 : 23:27
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Prolonged movement yesterday on the downside finally looks exhausted. Penetration above the fresh high at 1.5526 (R1) might keep bulls in play, targeting next resistances at 1.5547 (R2) and 1.0568 (R3). Downwards scenario: Bearish forces are possible below the next support level at 1.5502 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next target at 1.5481 (S2). If the price holds its momentum on the downside we suggest final target for today at 1.5458 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5526, 1.5547, 1.5568
Support Levels: 1.5502, 1.5481, 1.5458
--------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 93.117 LOW 92.25 BID 92.504 ASK 92.510 CHANGE -0.39% TIME 08 : 23:28
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Retracement development is limited to the next resistive structure at 92.81 (R1). Clearance here might shift trader’s sentiment to bullish side and open road towards to initial targets, located at 92.96 (R2) and 93.11 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers important support level at 92.25 (S1). Discounted value of USDJPY might push through this mark and enable next visible target at 92.11 (S2) en route to 91.96 (S3) later on.
Resistance Levels: 92.81, 92.96, 93.11
Support Levels: 92.25, 92.11, 91.96
Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:11 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 18 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 18 2013
G20 statement settles on generalities; approval to keep selling the Yen?
The G20 weekend meeting and its final statement settled again on generalities, with key passages posing little risk to neither discredit nor criticize ongoing Japanese polices, where no specific mention was noticed. As Sean Callow, Westpac FX strategist, notes: “G20 statements always reflect the difficulty in reaching agreement among nations with often quite diverse policy approaches, settling on generalities with little risk of shaking up markets. Once again, for FX markets, the Moscow statement offered only a modest tweak compared to the Nov 2012 Mexico City statement”
Some key FX-related passages obtained from the statement can be found below: – “We will not target our exchange rates for competitive purposes”. – “We reiterate our commitments to move more rapidly toward more market-determined exchange rate systems and exchange rate flexibility…” – “We reiterate that excess volatility of financial flows and disorderly movements in exchange rates have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. In brief, as Forexlive editor Eamonn Sheridan, notes: “If policy is aimed at achieving results in the domestic economy then its OK. Of course, it is difficult to gauge whether domestic policies are, or are not, aimed at weakening the currency.”
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-february-18-2013/
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Positive tone establishment is limited to the next resistive means at 1.3357 (R1). Break here is required to allow further strengthening towards to our immediate targets at 1.3379 (R2) and 1.3401 (R3). Downwards scenario: Immediate risk of further market decline is seen below the key support level at 1.3325 (S1). Medium-term downside expansion would then be targeting marks at 1.3303 (S2) and 1.3282 (S3) in perspective.
Resistance Levels: 1.3357, 1.3379, 1.3401
Support Levels: 1.3325, 1.3303, 1.3282
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: Price action looks mainly consolidative, though violation of our resistance at 1.5512 (R1) would be a signal of possible uptrend formation with next expected targets ahead at 1.5536 (R2) and 1.5559 (R3). Downwards scenario: We are not expecting significant price deviation on the downside today though break of next support level at 1.5471 (S1) might extend easing towards to expected targets at 1.5449 (S2) and 1.5425 (S3) levels.
Resistance Levels: 1.5512, 1.5536, 1.5559
Support Levels: 1.5471, 1.5449, 1.5425
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: Any upside actions looks limited to resistance level at the fresh high – 94.21 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable next target at 94.38 (R2) and any further gain would then be targeting last resistance at 94.54 (R3). Downwards scenario: Measures of support might be activating when the pair approaches the 93.83 (S1). If it continues to extend its weakening below it we expect next targets to be exposed at 93.68 (S2) and 93.51 (S3) later on.
Resistance Levels: 94.21, 94.38, 94.54
Support Levels: 93.83, 93.68, 93.51
Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 11:37 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 19 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 19 2013
Draghi: Exchange rate is not a policy target
ECB head Mario Draghi visited the European Parliament on Monday to take part in two hearings before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, one on the central bank’s monetary policy and the second on systemic risk. He assured that the exchange rate is not the central bank’s policy target, but that it is important for the evaluation of price stability and growth. This way Mario Draghi referred to the G20 meeting held last weekend, which focused on the issue of currency manipulation and during which the participating nations pledged to refrain from resorting to competitive currency devaluation.
He also said that Europe “entered 2013 in a more stable financial environment than in recent years” but at the same time he warned that the risks to the European economy were still tilted to the downside. He listed the weakening of exports, the failure to timely implement structural reforms by EU governments and geopolitical issues as the three main threats. Mario Draghi reiterated that the ECB’s monetary policy stance would remain accommodative.
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-february-19-2013/
Forex News
2013-02-19 05:42 GMT | GBP/USD unable to close weekly opening gap below 1.55
2013-02-19 05:26 GMT | Yen recovers as Japan rhetoric eases
2013-02-19 04:48 GMT | Can the Euro suffer a butterfly-like effect?
2013-02-19 04:21 GMT | AUD/NZD ready for a tactical rally towards 1.2470 – ANZ
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Market players may prefer to stay neutral today during limited tier one macroeconomic data flow, though a break of our resistance at 1.3366 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.3384 (R2) and 1.3401 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument trapped to the consolidation formation after its initial decline on the longer term perspective. Risk of further depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.3336 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next targets at 1.3320 (S2) and 1.3302 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3366, 1.3384, 1.3401
Support Levels: 1.3336, 1.3320, 1.3302
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: Instrument trades under the descending channel formation, though market recovery is possible above the next resistance level at 1.5487 (R1). Break here is required for further appreciation towards to our initial targets at 1.5512 (R2) and 1.5536 (R3). Downwards scenario: Hourly indicators show negative readings, as both moving averages still pointing down. Immediate focus comes on the next support level at 1.5453 (S1). Any penetration below it would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5428 (S2) and 1.5404 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5487, 1.5512, 1.5536
Support Levels: 1.5453, 1.5428, 1.5404
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: Currently USDJPY is losing -0.35% however medium-term bias remains positive. Next on tap is resistance level at 93.76 (R1). A break higher could open the door for an attack to the next target at 93.92 (R2). Final immediate resistance is seen at 94.08 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price regress below the support level at 93.55 (S1) the instrument has an increased likelihood of failing towards to our key supportive barrier at 93.40 (S2) and any further market decline would then be limited to 93.25 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 93.76, 93.92, 94.08
Support Levels: 93.55, 93.40, 93.25
Posted: Wed Feb 20, 2013 10:35 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 20 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 20 2013
Australia: RBA Sees the Medicine Starting to Take, But Is It?
After a year-and-a-half of cuts in its cash rate, Australia’s central bank kept rates unchanged at its recent meeting citing a firming in economic growth. We are not convinced and cannot rule out more rate cuts. Australia’s economy has outpaced many of the world’s advanced economies in recent years in addition to having mostly sidestepped the worst of the global slowdown of 2009. Having said that, the economy has not been without its challenges. More recently, these headwinds have come from abroad. The sovereign debt situation in Europe has had knock-on effects in other parts of the global economy, particularly in China, Australia’s number one export partner.
While the Australian economy continues to grow, the pace of that growth has slowed in each of the past two quarters. In fact, the 1.9 percent annualized growth rate in Q3 2012 was the second weakest outturn for economic growth in Australia since 2009. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been acutely aware of the weakening in growth and has steadily reduced its benchmark lending rate, the cash rate, a total of 175 basis points over the past year and a half. The RBA’s decision to stay on hold at its meeting earlier this month surprised some market watchers who had anticipated another rate cut. Minutes from the February meeting of the RBA offer some perspective behind the decision to leave rates unchanged at 3.00 percent.
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-february-20-2013/
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-20 07:00 GMT | Germany. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-20 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Bank of England Minutes
2013-02-20 13:30 GMT | United States. Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-20 19:00 GMT | United States. FOMC Minutes
Forex News
2013-02-20 05:54 GMT | USD/JPY prints fresh weekly lows above 93.10
2013-02-20 05:27 GMT | EUR/USD escapes bear calls; next target at 1.35
2013-02-20 04:57 GMT | GBP/USD above 1.5420, off 7th consecutive daily lower low
2013-02-20 04:21 GMT | AUD/NZD rallies on RBNZ warnings
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Market strengthening is the likely scenario after the price finally established directional movement yesterday. A local high has been set at 1.3434 (R1), break here is required to enable route towards to next targets at 1.3450 (R2) and 1.3466 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support comes at 1.3396 (S1) level. Loss here might shift market sentiment to the bearish side and validate our next visible target 1.3380 (S2) en route towards to final support level at 1.3364 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3434, 1.3450, 1.3466
Support Levels: 1.3396, 1.3380, 1.3364
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
Upwards scenario: Bank of England Minutes at 09:30 GMT might bring additional volatility to the markets. Clearance of our next resistance level at 1.5454 (R1) would suggest next interim target at 1.5489 (R2) and if market holds its upside momentum last resistance could be found at 1.5524 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the key support barrier at 1.5415 (S1). Only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to our next targets at 1.5381 (S2) and potentially even 1.5347 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5454, 1.5489, 1.5524
Support Levels: 1.5415, 1.5381, 1.5347
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
Upwards scenario: Price tested negative territory today and currently lost -0.36 % in its price value. Never the less clearance of next resistive structure at 93.35 (R1) might open the way towards to our initial target at 93.50 (R2) and any further market rise would then be targeting 93.63 (R3). Downwards scenario: The base of the descending channel formation offers an important supportive mark at 93.11 (S1). Depreciation below it might shift medium-term tendency to the bearish side and validate next intraday targets at 92.97 (S2) and 92.82 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 93.35, 93.50, 93.63
Support Levels: 93.11, 92.97, 92.82
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
Posted: Thu Feb 21, 2013 10:52 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 21 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 21 2013
FOMC Minutes: Some Fed officials consider eventual QE pullback
Minutes of the Fed’s January policy meeting showed several officials think the bank should be prepared to vary the pace of its asset purchases, depending on how the economy performs and its analysis of the costs and benefits of the program. As shown by the minutes, officials worried that the Fed ultra-loose policy could lead to instability in financial markets. The Fed plans to evaluate how the programs are doing at its next meeting March 19 and 20 where officials will consider major changes to its quantitative easing program. Some FOMC members consider the Fed might have to taper or even end its bond-buying programs before reaching the current goal of a substantial improvement in the labor market. However, others officials argued that ending QE too soon would damage the economy.
“A number of participants stated that an ongoing evaluation of the efficacy, costs, and risks of asset purchases might well lead the Committee to taper or end its purchases before it judged that a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market had occurred,” the minutes said. During the meeting, several Fed officials expressed concern about the potential for excessive risk taking by investors due to the Fed’s accommodative policy. Officials even discussed the idea for the Fed to replace asset purchases with a promise not to sell assets for a longer period than currently envisioned. Kansas City Fed President Esther George dissented at the January meeting, citing concerns about financial stability. The Fed will meet next on March 19-20.
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-february-21-2013/
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-21 08:28 GMT | Germany. Markit Services PMI (Feb)
2013-02-21 08:58 GMT | E.M.U. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
2013-02-21 13:30 GMT | United States. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-21 15:00 GMT | United States. Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Jan)
Forex News
2013-02-21 05:50 GMT | GBP/USD pounded below 1.5200
2013-02-21 05:43 GMT | USD, JPY enjoy follow through in Asia
2013-02-21 04:58 GMT | USD/JPY below 93.50 on more BoJ-related jawboning
2013-02-21 03:58 GMT | GBP/JPY selling off to fresh Feb lows
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Excessive losses provided yesterday clearly determined medium-term negative bias though rise above the resistance at 1.3306 (R1) might provide sufficient space for the appreciation towards to next target at 1.3332 (R2). Further market increase above it would face final resistive structure at 1.3356 (R3). Downwards scenario: Technically situation is clear. Fresh low at 1.3235 (S1) offers a key supportive barrier on the way of downtrend development. A dip below it would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3213 (S2) and 1.3190 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.3306, 1.3332, 1.3356
Support Levels: 1.3235, 1.3213, 1.3190
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
Upwards scenario: New portion of macroeconomic data releases might increase volatility later on today. Our resistances at 1.5303 (R2) and 1.5355 (R3) could be exposed in case of possible recovery action. But first, price is required to overcome our key resistive barrier at 1.5250 (R1). Downwards scenario: Resuming of negative tendency might occur below the key support level at 1.5131 (S1). Break here would open road towards to next supportive measure at 1.5081 (S2) and final bastion could be found at 1.5031 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5303, 1.5355, 1.5250
Support Levels: 1.5131, 1.5081, 1.5031
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: In current price setup it is hard to determine prevailing market direction. Our next resistance stays at 93.63 (R1). Market expansion towards to next targets at 93.77 (R2) and 93.91 (R3) looks reasonable if the price manages to overcome it. Downwards scenario: Pair has been trading sideways. Depreciation below the support at 93.29 (S1) level might likely push the pair lower and enable our interim target at 93.15 (S2). Any further market decline would then be limited to psychological support at 93.00 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 93.63, 93.77, 93.91
Support Levels: 93.29, 93.15, 93.00
Posted: Fri Feb 22, 2013 11:45 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 22 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 22 2013
Social unrest against austerity measures rises in Europe
Greece and Bulgaria are in the main focus on Wednesday as dissatisfaction with the tough austerity measures pushed the people in both countries to protest in the streets.S&P warned that Cyprus might be downgraded to CCC+ and finally default. BoE Minutes revealed that Governor Mervyn King was outvoted on QE extension. Angela Merkel and Mariano Rajoy were also on the wires. Greek workers took part in the first general strike of the year. They protested against the reduction of wages and tax increases. Gsee y Adedy, two main labor unions which organized the strike, believe that the measures adopted by the government aggravate the situation in the country where the unemployment rate reached 27%, while youth unemployment stands at 60%.
The violent protests in Bulgaria on Tuesday, suppressed brutally by the police, resulted on Wednesday in the resignation of the country’s government. PM Boiko Borisov announced the decision in the morning, attributing it to his disapproval of way the protesters were handled the previous night. Bulgarians have been expressing their opposition towards the latest increases in the cost of electricity and power monopolies. They have also been accusing politicians of corruption and showing dissatisfaction with the low living standards. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in the European morning that countries should not carry out active exchange rate policies. She also stated that the “euro between $1.30 and $1.40 is normal in the historical perspective of the euro”. Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy presented new fiscal reforms on Wednesday, and announced that steps will be taken in order to prevent and suppress corruption connected with financial activities of political parties. -FXstreet.com
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/22022013/
2013-02-22 07:00 GMT | Germany. Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) (Q4)
2013-02-22 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts
2013-02-22 13:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-22 15:30 GMT | United states. FOMC Member Powell Speech
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
----------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.32188 LOW 1.31828 BID 1.32144 ASK 1.32150 CHANGE 0.2% TIME 07 : 51:59
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD has gradually climbed during the Asian session, having made fresh high but lately lost momentum. In terms of technical levels next resistance level could be found at 1.3233 (R1). Appreciation above it would enable higher marks at 1.3270 (R2) and 1.3308 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument has comfortably ranged after its initial bearish setup and any further downside extension is protected now by the key support at 1.3160 (S1). Loss here is required to enable our initial targets at 1.3124 (S2) and 1.3086 (S3)
Resistance Levels: 1.3233, 1.3270, 1.3308
Support Levels: 1.3160, 1.3124, 1.3086
-------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.53199 LOW 1.52438 BID 1.52870 ASK 1.52885 CHANGE 0.25% TIME 07 : 52:00
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: While instrument trades above the moving averages, it keeps immediate upside potential. Next hurdle is seen at 1.5323 (R1), break above it might extend gains towards to next targets at 1.5365 (R2) and 1.5406 (R3). Downwards scenario: The short oriented traders expected to be in play below the next support level at 1.5210 (S1) to confirm downside evolvement. Clearance of this level I required to open way towards to next targets at 1.5166 (S2) and 1.5120 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5323, 1.5365, 1.5406
Support Levels: 1.5210, 1.5166, 1.5120
-----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 93.414 LOW 92.919 BID 93.282 ASK 93.287 CHANGE 0.18% TIME 07 : 52:01
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: USDJPY trapped to the consolidation phase. Fresh peak formed today offers a good resistance level at 93.42 (R1). Break here is required to take the pair towards to initial targets, located at 93.57 (R2) and 93.72 (R3). Downwards scenario: Relatively stable market is looking for priority in direction. Any prolonged movement below the support at 93.10 (S1) might enable downside forces and drive market price towards to next marks at 92.95 (S2) and 92.78 (S3) in perspective.
Resistance Levels: 93.42, 93.57, 93.72
Support Levels: 93.10, 92.95, 92.78
Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 11:13 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 25 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 25 2013
Italy at the crossroads ahead of weekend elections
On 24 and 25 February Italy heads to the polls to vote in the general election, called two months before of the end of the statutory five-year term. The outcome is rather uncertain as many voters remain undecided as to who to choose. Before the opinion polls blackout on 8 February, surveys showed that the center-left party had the most support.
The frontrunners in the election are the head of the center-left Democratic Party (PD) Pier Luigi Bersani and center-right People of Freedom (PDL) party’s leader Silvio Berlusconi. Third in the opinion polls comes the comedian turned populist politician Beppe Grillo an his 5-Star movement (5SM). The current Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti leading the Civic Choice coalition party also takes part in the elections, but is not expected to claim victory, but rather be a “kingmaker”. The outcome of the election is crucial as the new government will have to make head against the fiscal crisis consuming the country and implement reforms in order to prop up the ailing economy. A failure to do so would have dire implications for Italy and consequently the entire Eurozone as providing a bailout for such a large economy might prove to be impossible. As chief economist at Maverick Intelligence Megan Green suggests in an article for Bloomberg: “The next government in Rome may be stable or reformist by Italian standards, but it will not be both.”
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-february-25-2013/
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-25 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. BBA Mortgage Approvals (Jan)
2013-02-25 13:30 GMT | United States. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jan)
2013-02-25 17:15 GMT | Canada. BoC Governor Mark Carney Speech
2013-02-25 21:15 GMT | Australia. RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speech
Forex News
2013-02-25 05:46 GMT | GBP/USD sinks beneath 1.5100
2013-02-25 05:22 GMT | Euro traders shift gaze to Rome
2013-02-25 05:02 GMT | USD/JPY recovers again above 94.00
2013-02-25 04:23 GMT | NZD/USD expected at 0.87 by year end – NAB
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral
TREND CONDITION: Sideways
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however clearance of our next resistive barrier at 1.3220 (R1) is required to push the price towards to our next visible targets at 1.3244 (R2) and 1.3268 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of the further downtrend formation is seen below the 1.3179 (S1). With penetration here opens a route towards to our immediate support level at 1.3156 (S2) and any further price cut would then be limited to final target at 1.3130 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3220, 1.3244, 1.3268
Support Levels: 1.3179, 1.3156, 1.3130
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is pointing to a negative market sentiment by losing -0.25% today. Though clearance of our resistance at 1.5167 (R1) might trigger recovery action towards to our initial targets at 1.5214 (R2) and 1.5260 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next support level is seen below the local low at 1.5075 (S1). Any penetration below this level would increase likelihood of the downtrend development and suggest bearish priority in direction. Intraday support levels are placed at the 1.5030 (S2) and 1.4984 (S3) marks.
Resistance Levels: 1.5167, 1.5214, 1.5260
Support Levels: 1.5075, 1.5030, 1.4984
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: Market maintains a positive medium-term tone and currently is limited to our next resistive barrier at 94.36 (R1). If it manages to break it we would suggest next intraday targets at 94.50 (R2) and 94.65 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, break below the support at 93.96 (S1) would open a route for a recovery phase. Further market decline would then be targeting next supportive measures at 93.80 (S2) and 93.65 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 94.36, 94.50, 94.65
Support Levels: 93.96, 93.80, 93.65
Posted: Tue Feb 26, 2013 11:01 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 26 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 26 2013
Italians lead the country to ungovernability
Italians are leading the country to the ungovernability, and after a neck-to-neck battle to take control over the lower house between the center-left Bersani’s party and Mr. Grillo’s five star movement, with the first claiming a marginal victory, the big problem now lies in the advance from the center-right Berlusconi’s group and Mr- Grillo in the Senate, where there is no majority by any party. According to the latest reports, which show a 99.9% ballot scrutiny conducted, Italy’s center-left Bersani won by a slim margin the lower house while the Senate is confirmed to be deadlocked. The failure to build a coalition between the center-left Bersani’s party in both chambers, will now make any austerity-led implementation laws taken by the uncertain government a slow and difficult process.
As the Wall Street Journal notes: “The result is that Italy may, over the next few weeks, try to form a temporary government backed by a grand coalition of left and right-wing forces with the sole aim of changing Italy’s electoral law and then going to a vote again as early as summer. It isn’t clear who would run such a short-lived government.” Overall, what the results show is a fragmented Italian society, where almost 1/4 of the population failed to turn up at the polling stations, but most worrisome of all is the situation in the Senate, where even with Monti’s support, neither Bersani’s nor Grillo’s party will be able to pass key laws it appears, thus heightening fears over the austeritarian path Italy had undertaken under Monti’s technocrat government being no longer viable. A temporary hung parliament through a grand coalition government? Possibility of a second election being called? At the moment the landscape in Italian politics is extremely uncertain. What appears to have gained clarity though, is that Italian bonds are likely to be dumped until the political mess clears up.
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-february-26-2013/
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-26 10:00 GMT | United Kingdom. Inflation Report Hearings
2013-02-26 14:00 GMT | United States. Housing Price Index (MoM) (Dec)
2013-02-26 15:00 GMT | United States. Fed’s Bernanke testifies
2013-02-26 21:45 GMT | New Zeland. Trade Balance (MoM) (Jan)
Forex News
2013-02-26 05:36 GMT | EUR/USD to bounce on Bernanke testimony – Westpac
2013-02-26 05:20 GMT | GBP/USD above 1.52, against all
2013-02-26 04:45 GMT | EUR/JPY sellers win 38.2% fib battle; breaks sub 120.00 again
2013-02-26 04:08 GMT | USD/JPY returns to the downside below key 92.20
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Instrument stabilized after the losses provided yesterday and we expect neutral formation development prior further volatility increase. Intraday bull’s power might activate when the pair approach resistance level at 1.3092 (R1). Our next target is seen at 1.3118 (R2) and 1.3143 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the local low at 1.3036 (S1) might maintain a negative tone and prolong downtrend formation. Price devaluation would then be targeting our supportive measures at 1.3011 (S2) and 1.2985 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3092, 1.3118, 1.3143
Support Levels: 1.3036, 1.3011, 1.2985
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum, turning intraday bias to the positive side. Next resistance ahead is seen at 1.5220 (R1). Upwards penetration above it might drive market price towards to initial targets at 1.5253 (R2) and 1.5284 (R3). Downwards scenario: Opportunities for bearish oriented traders are seen below the important support level at 1.5153 (S1). Loss here would open door for the downtrend expansion towards to interim targets at 1.5118 (S2) and 1.5081 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5220, 1.5253, 1.5284
Support Levels: 1.5153, 1.5118, 1.5081
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: Instrument has over performed yesterday, being unable to made significant correction. Our focus returned to the resistive barrier at 92.59 (R1). If the price manages to surpass it, market participants have a chance to establish recovery formation towards to next targets at 92.89 (R2) and 93.18 (R3). Downwards scenario: Markets simply ignored all supportive measures yesterday and formed clear bearish bias. Risk of further decline is seen below the key support level at 91.74 (S1). Break here is required to enable lower target at 91.47 (S2) and 91.18 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 92.59, 92.89, 93.18
Support Levels: 91.74, 91.47, 91.18
Posted: Wed Feb 27, 2013 11:08 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 27 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 27 2013
Europe concerned with Italian election outcome
The post election stalemate in Italy, where no political group secured a clear majority in parliament, is causing concerns among European officials and a stir in the markets. Italian FTSE MIB fell by 4.60% on Tuesday while the yield on the country’s benchmark 10-year bond rose to 4.79%. Throughout the day various European officials have been expressing their concerns with the outcome of the elections. German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle stressed the need for a strong government in Italy, which would carry on with the reform plan initiated by Mario Monti. European Commission spokesman Olivier Bailly said that boosting growth and creating jobs should be the most important points on the new government’s agenda.
Spanish Minister of Economy Luis de Guindos said in the European morning that he hopes Italy would continue introducing measures to fight the crisis, while his French counterpart Pierre Moscovici expressed hope that Pier Luigi Bersani would form a government inclined to implement further reforms. Also BoE MPC members, speaking before the UK Treasury Committee, emphasized that a prolonged political instability in Italy might considerably harm the Eurozone economy.
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-february-27-2013/
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-27 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q4)
2013-02-27 13:30 GMT | United States. US Durable Goods Orders (Jan)
2013-02-27 15:00 GMT | United States. Fed’s Bernanke testifies
2013-02-27 17:30 GMT | E.M.U. ECB President Draghi’s Speech
Forex News
2013-02-27 05:39 GMT | Euro speaks Italian these days, capire?
2013-02-27 05:18 GMT | GBP/USD threatening 1.5100 support
2013-02-27 04:41 GMT | USD/JPY Q2 target at 97 – JPM
2013-02-27 02:58 GMT | Gold higher on Bernanke testimony
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Sideways
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Instrument consolidates after the initial price cut on the 25-02-2013. Our reference point for the upside penetration locates at 1.3092 (R1). Clearance here is required to enable higher targets at 1.3134 (R2) and 1.3173 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further downside extension is limited now to the important resistance level at 1.3036 (S1). Below here we see potential for the price acceleration towards to next initial targets at 1.2997 (S2) and 1.2957 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3092, 1.3134, 1.3173
Support Levels: 1.3036, 1.2997, 1.2957
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
Upwards scenario: Corrective action might take a place above the next resistance at 1.5139 (R1). Break here would open route towards to higher target at 1.5180 (R2) and any further price advance would then be limited to 1.5220 (R3). Downwards scenario: Recently instrument tested negative side however it might face next hurdle on the important technical level -1.5072 (S1). Break here is required to open road for the downtrend resuming. Our intraday targets for today are 1.5032 (S2) and 1.4995 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5139, 1.5180, 1.5220
Support Levels: 1.5072, 1.5032, 1.4995
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
Upwards scenario: Price finally stabilized after the initial market decline and currently is looking for priority in direction. Break above the fractal level at 92.27 (R1) is required to generate recovery action and expose our intraday targets at 92.64 (R2) and 93.03 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the next resistance level our medium-term outlook would be negative. Next on tap is support level at 91.39 (S1). Instrument might face next hurdle at 91.00 (S2) and 90.59 (S3) in case of positive retest here.
Resistance Levels: 92.27, 92.64, 93.03
Support Levels: 91.39, 91.00, 90.59
Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 10:23 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 28 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 28 2013
Moody’s: Euro zone debt markets vulnerable to further shocks
Moody’s rating agency continues to warn Euro area countries that debt markets in the region remain vulnerable to further shocks to investor confidence. Find below the main quotes from the official communique: “Market volatility in recent days proves that the euro area sovereign debt markets remain vulnerable to further shocks to investor confidence because of the limited fundamental changes in euro area countries’ economic indicators, debt trajectories or institutional reforms since last July.”
“The growth outlook for peripheral countries is still weak, and progress in reversing debt trajectories remains slow and halting. Political and implementation risks remain significant, with little evidence of cohesion among policymakers and a rising risk of complacency setting in as market pressure for reforms subsides. And while the introduction of the Outright Monetary Transaction facility by the European Central Bank has successfully reversed the rise in sovereign debt yields for now, the potential for further shocks remains, for example with investors in Greece (C) and Cyprus (Caa3, negative) still exposed to heightened default risk.” “Overall, for most euro area countries, the balance of macroeconomic, political and implementation risks as well as the ‘event’ risks of further shocks to confidence remain firmly to the downside, supporting Moody’s negative outlooks for most euro area sovereign ratings.”
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-february-28-2013/
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-28 08:55 GMT | Germany. DE Unemployment Change (Feb)
2013-02-28 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-28 13:00 GMT | Germany. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-02-28 13:30 GMT | United States. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4)
Forex News
2013-02-27 13:52 GMT | USD/JPY falls after US durable goods orders
2013-02-27 13:50 GMT | EUR/USD back to 1.3085/90 after US data
2013-02-27 13:31 GMT | US: Durable Good Orders fell 5.2% in January
2013-02-27 12:38 GMT | GBP/USD easing from 1.5140 zone
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Potential is seen for break above the resistance at 1.3163 (R1) today and develop some recovery from the initial downtrend formation. In such scenario we would suggest next target at 1.3189 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.3214 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although we do expect some pull-backs on the downside below our next support level at 1.3132 (S1). Short-term momentum on the negative side might open the way towards to immediate supports at 1.3104 (S2) and 1.3076 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3163, 1.3189, 1.3214
Support Levels: 1.3132, 1.3104, 1.3076
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
Upwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bullish oriented traders. Fresh high formed today offers next resistance level at 1.5177 (R1). In case of market appreciation above that level our focus would then be shifted to the higher targets at 1.5219 (R2) and 1.5258 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the key support at 1.5119 (S1). Loss here is required to allow further declines and expose our support barrier at 1.5080 (S3) en route towards to final target for today at 1.5039 (S3)
Resistance Levels: 1.5177, 1.5219, 1.5258
Support Levels: 1.5119, 1.5080, 1.5039
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday. Possible price strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 92.66 (R1). Next interim target holds at 92.97 (R2) en route toward to our major aim at 93.27 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support at 92.15 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective. As a result our supportive means at 91.85 (S2) and 91.54 (S3) might be triggered.
Resistance Levels: 92.66, 92.97, 93.27
Support Levels: 92.15, 91.85, 91.54
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) _________________ alayoua mbark
Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 11:32 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 01 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 01 2013
It's official, the US sequestration kicks in
The sequestration, for those unfamiliar with the term, is defined by the US Federal Budget as "the practice of using mandatory spending cuts in the federal budget if the cost of running the government exceeds either an arbitrary amount or the the gross revenue it brings during the fiscal year." These automatic federal budget cuts are officially kicking in within as we write these lines, after a final bill presented by Democrats and Republicans in the Senate failed to win enough support. What this means is that the US will now go through an across-the-board spending cuts in the face of annual budget deficits, which are thought to amount over $85 billion in the current fiscal year. "Assuming that every dollar cut in spending reduces GDP by a dollar, the sequester will shave US growth by around 0.5% this year" comments Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH.
Marc adds: "The sequester itself is a bit of a farce in the sense that it was never intended to be enacted. It was purposely designed to be absurd to give the political class incentive to find an alternative." The analyst suspects that what is behind the 'sequester' is the fact that main political players did their calculations concluding is the best worst alternative. Obama crossed the wires later Thursday, saying that "tomorrow I will bring together leaders from both parties to discuss a path forward; as a nation, we can’t keep lurching from one manufactured crisis to another. Middle-class families can’t keep paying the price for dysfunction in Washington.” Kathy Lien, co-founder at BK Asset Management, notes: "We've been down this road before with the debt ceiling and survived." But as Kathy adds, here comes the kicker: "The Obama Administration has another 30 days to come up with a deal to cancel and avoid the cuts. The more important deadline is March 27th, when the government runs out of money and will be forced to shutdown if no additional measures are taken." Investors are holding out hope for a last minute deal, Kathy says.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/01032013/
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-03-01 09:28 GMT | United Kingdom. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
2013-03-01 13:30 GMT | United States. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index (YoY) (Jan)
2013-03-01 13:30 GMT | Canada. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Dec)
2013-03-01 13:58 GMT | United States. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Forex News
2013-03-01 05:57 GMT | GBP/USD above 1.5150; slows down avrg vol
2013-03-01 05:34 GMT | EUR/USD continues sequestered by sellers
2013-03-01 03:50 GMT | Gold below $1590 as 'sequester' looms
2013-03-01 02:55 GMT | AUD/USD little moved around 1.0220
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30836 LOW 1.30532 BID 1.30775 ASK 1.30783 CHANGE 0.17% TIME 08 : 02:53
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Price get momentum on the downside yesterday however we see potential to overcome our next resistance level at 1.3094 (R1). Clearance here might pull the pair towards to eventual targets at 1.3121 (R2) and 1.3146 (R3). Downwards scenario: Near term outlook is negative for the EURUSD as the price setup is taken a form of a downside formation. Expected progress below the initial support level at 1.3051 (S1) might expose intraday targets at 1.3024 (S2) and then 1.2996 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3094, 1.3121, 1.3146
Support Levels: 1.3051, 1.3024, 1.2996
---------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51824 LOW 1.51513 BID 1.51811 ASK 1.51824 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 02:54
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Sideways formation remains in power today. Next on tap is resistance level at 1.5198 (R1). Clearance here might open a route towards to our initial target at 1.5227 (R2) and then further price appreciation would be limited to last resistance at 1.5258 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, yesterday lows at 1.5148 (S1) offers an important technical level. Clearance here is required to keep the downside extension intact and expose our lower targets at 1.5118 (S2) and 1.5086 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5198, 1.5227, 1.5258
Support Levels: 1.5148, 1.5118, 1.5086
----------------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 92.731 LOW 92.466 BID 92.536 ASK 92.541 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 02:55
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Ascending uptrend formation remains in power today. Next resistance is seen at 92.73 (R1). If the pair manages to successfully climb above it, we expect next targets to be exposed at 92.97 (R2) and 93.20 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, price depreciation below the supportive barrier at 92.45 (S1) might provide sufficient space for the recovery action. In such case e we would suggest next intraday targets at 92.23 (R2) and then 92.01 (R3).
Resistance Levels: 92.73, 92.97, 93.20
Support Levels: 92.45, 92.23, 92.01
Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2013 10:57 am Post subject: Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 04 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 04 2013
BoJ Kuroda will do whatever it takes to end deflation
The confirmation hearing for Mr. Kuroda as the new chief of the BOJ is taking place in the parliament, and the first comments are crossing the wires. Among the standout headlines, he said that monetary policy will be deployed to conquer deflation, adding that BOJ has not bought enough assets to end deflation, also saying that the BOJ independence is secured by law. Lastly, there was some notorious comments on his assertiveness to implement policies, although with little effects to the Yen so far, as he also said - 'a la Draghi Japanese version' - that he will do whatever it takes to end deflation.
He also noted: "The BOJ must clearly send out the message, through communication with markets, that it will do whatever it can to beat deflation." On the different options to ease policy further, BoJ Kuroda said the most natural way is to increase JBG purchases, buying longer-dated JGBs, although additional market behaviour inspection on potential repercussions should first be examined. He continued saying that the BOJ must expand economic stimulus both through assets volume increases and the type of assets it buys. Also that he might consider a new era of open-ended asset buying soon. To sum up, his comments sound very much as a recipe for disappointment - expectations being set very high - unless the bank starts executing an aggressive balance sheet expansion through domestic long term bond purchases and other risky assets in the coming months. If next April 4 BoJ meeting sees no much changes in policies, there might be more risk of Yen appreciation.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/04032013/
Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A E.M.U. Eurogroup meeting
2013-03-04 09:30 GMT United Kingdom. PMI Construction (Feb)
2013-03-04 10:00 GMT E.M.U. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)
2013-03-04 13:00 GMT United States. FOMC Member Yellen Speech
Forex News :
2013-03-04 05:31 GMT GBP/USD below 1.5050 ahead of UK Construction PMI
2013-03-04 05:20 GMT EUR/USD wrestling around 1.30
2013-03-04 04:54 GMT AUD/USD breaks down to 8-month lows
2013-03-04 04:22 GMT Kiwi prints fresh 2013 lows
-------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30309 LOW 1.30017 BID 1.30109 ASK 1.30117 CHANGE -0.04% TIME 08 : 18:34
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: We expect next barrier on the upside at 1.3046 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable our initial target at 1.3080 (R2) and any further gains would then be limited to last resistive structure at 1.3114 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support level locates at 1.2965 (S1), breaching of this level would provide a signal of possible price regress towards to next target at 1.2933 (S2). If the price manages to overcome it, our final support for today could be found at 1.2900 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3046, 1.3080, 1.3114
Support Levels: 1.2965, 1.2933, 1.2900
----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.50437 LOW 1.50222 BID 1.50325 ASK 1.50338 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 18:35
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Our technical outlook for the medium-term perspective remains bearish oriented however a break through next resistance level at 1.5049 (R1) would enable corrective action and might expose our next targets at 1.5087 (R2) and 1.5125 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: While instrument trades below the next resistance level, our medium-term bias forecast would be negative. Penetration below the support level at 1.4984 (S1) might open the way towards to lower targets at 1.4946 (S2) and 1.4909 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5049, 1.5087, 1.5125
Support Levels: 1.4984, 1.4946, 1.4909
-------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 93.723 LOW 93.284 BID 93.416 ASK 93.421 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08 : 18:36
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Hourly chart consensus remains in play. Buyers might face next challenge at 93.72 (R1). Break here is required to establish bullish pressure, targeting 93.92 (R2) en route towards to last resistance for today at 94.12 (R3). Downwards scenario: The downside trend evolvement is limited now to the next support level at 93.27 (S1), break here would put near-term bulls on hold. Marks at 93.07 (S2) and 92.86 (S3) is the next supportive bastion on the way.
Resistance Levels: 93.72, 93.92, 94.12
Support Levels: 93.27, 93.07, 92.86
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